Intercept Pharmaceuticals (ICPT:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Intercept Pharmaceuticals (ICPT:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Intercept Pharmaceuticals(ICPT:NAS)

Healthcare:Biotechnology

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$19.78 (USD) 04/30/2021

Weighted Valuation
$10.32 (USD)

Overall Rating
Overvalued by 47.8%

Valuation Models Comparables: $10.32 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $30.17 this stock is Undervalued

Company Overview (ICPT:NAS USD)

Price 19.78
Range 19.74 – 20.93
52 week 19.33 – 92.04
Open 20.24
Vol / Avg. 856109/1.23M
Mkt cap 655.95M
P/E 0.00
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS -8.34
Shares 33.16M
Beta 1.58

Company Description

Intercept Pharmaceuticals is a biotech company focused on developing and commercializing novel therapeutics to treat chronic liver diseases. Obeticholic acid, or OCA, is an agonist of the farnesoid X receptor. OCA was approved as Ocaliva to treat primary biliary cirrhosis in 2016 and is being developed for a variety of chronic liver diseases, including nonalcoholic steatohepatitis, or NASH.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for ICPT:NAS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of ($58.80) (USD) for ICPT:NAS

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $74.22 (USD) for ICPT:NAS. We also generated a valuation of $10.32 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were AnaptysBio (ANAB:NAS), Pfenex (PFNX:ASE), Matinas BioPharma Hldgs (MTNB:ASE), Relmada Therapeutics (RLMD:NAS) and Cara Therapeutics (CARA:NAS).

Company ICPT:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($8.34) (USD)
Book Value/Share ($5.03) (USD)
Sales/Share $9.48 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share ($5.16) (USD)
EBITDA/Share ($6.79) (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$0.00 (USD) 0.0
$0.00 (USD) 68.0
$74.22 (USD) 0.0
($17.46) (USD) 0.0
$0.00 (USD) 0.0
ICPT:NAS Ratios Used Average Values ANAB:NAS PFNX:ASE MTNB:ASE RLMD:NAS CARA:NAS
0.00 PE Ratio 71.94 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 71.94
0.00 PB Ratio 3.85 1.61 5.92 3.00 6.12 2.60
2.09 PS Ratio 279.45 8.50 10.38 1094.32 0.00 4.59
0.00 PCF Ratio 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 EV to EBITDA 84.45 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 84.45

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $194.18 (USD) for ICPT:NAS

Company ICPT:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($8.34) (USD)
Book Value/Share ($5.03) (USD)
Sales/Share $9.48 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share ($5.16) (USD)
EBITDA/Share ($6.79) (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$0.00 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
$194.18 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 0.00
PB Ratio 13.29
PS Ratio 20.47
PCF Ratio 0.00
EV to EBITDA 0.00

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  ICPT:NAS for the last 10 years was  11.39

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  ICPT:NAS and generated a book value of  ($5.05) (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  ($57.54) (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 6 analysts that provide a valuation for ICPT:NAS. The 6 analysts have a concensus valuation for ICPT:NAS for 2021 of $30.17 (USD).

ICPT:NAS Intercept Pharmaceuticals

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
0 6 0 3.0000 Hold 2021-4-29

Current Price: 19.78 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2021 2022 2023
Mean EPS -4.75 -5.56 -3.58
# EPS Analysts 6 6 6
Mean Revenue 341.40 315.50 391.20
# Revenue Analysts 6 6 6
Mean Target Price 30.17
Mean Cash Flow -3.46 -3.45 -1.78
Mean EBITDA -94.60 -163.90 -133.80
Mean Net Income -162.80 -244.60 -169.00
Mean Debt Outstanding 230.60 86.60 -61.80
Mean Tax Rate 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure 2.90 2.20 2.10

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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