Leaf Group (LEAF:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Leaf Group (LEAF:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Leaf Group(LEAF:NYS)

Communication Services:Internet Content & Information

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$8.72 (USD) 05/05/2021

Weighted Valuation
$6.17 (USD)

Overall Rating
Overvalued by 29.3%

Valuation Models Multiples: $4.96 (USD)
Adjusted Book Value: $4.54 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $9.00 this stock is Fairly valued

Company Overview (LEAF:NYS USD)

Price 8.72
Range 8.72 – 8.79
52 week 1.54 – 9.25
Open 8.80
Vol / Avg. 358138/660483
Mkt cap 313.92M
P/E 0.00
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS -0.32
Shares 36M
Beta 2.13

Company Description

Leaf Group Ltd is a diversified consumer internet company that builds enduring, creator-driven brands that reach passionate audiences in large and growing lifestyle categories, including fitness and wellness and home, art and design. The company operates in three segments: Society6 Group, Saatchi Art Group, and Media Group. Society6 Group is made-to-order marketplace business and includes Society6.com and its wholesale channel. Saatchi Art Group which includes SaatchiArt.com and its complementary art fair event brand, The Other Art Fair which is online art gallery with a focus on emerging artists. Its Media Group segment consists of a diverse portfolio of media properties that educate and inform consumers on a broad range of topics.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for LEAF:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $1.77 (USD) for LEAF:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

LEAF:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $1.77 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 19.30 $1.91 $1.64
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $1.67 $1.87
Tax Rate 0.27 $1.90 $1.64
Cash Flow 22,935,981 $1.65 $1.88
Capital Expenditures -6,287,800 $1.74 $1.79
Long Term Debt 0 $1.77 $1.77

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $2.55 (USD) for LEAF:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $14.14 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Liberty TripAdvisor Hldgs (LTRPB:NAS), TrueCar (TRUE:NAS), Thryv Holdings (THRY:NAS), Moxian (MOXC:NAS) and Groupon (GRPN:NAS).

Company LEAF:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($0.32) (USD)
Book Value/Share $2.18 (USD)
Sales/Share $7.77 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $0.42 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $0.05 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$0.00 (USD) 0.0
$14.25 (USD) -69.2
$15.57 (USD) -78.9
$2.92 (USD) -30.1
$0.98 (USD) -71.7
LEAF:NYS Ratios Used Average Values LTRPB:NAS TRUE:NAS THRY:NAS MOXC:NAS GRPN:NAS
0.00 PE Ratio 6.39 0.00 0.00 6.39 0.00 0.00
4.01 PB Ratio 339.15 0.00 1.19 4.76 1336.94 13.71
1.12 PS Ratio 37.78 4.37 1.76 0.86 180.87 1.02
20.97 PCF Ratio 8.33 0.00 12.56 4.10 0.00 0.00
209.39 EV to EBITDA 21.36 0.00 36.81 5.92 0.00 0.00

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $4.96 (USD) for LEAF:NYS

Company LEAF:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($0.32) (USD)
Book Value/Share $2.18 (USD)
Sales/Share $7.77 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $0.42 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $0.05 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$0.00 (USD) 0
$5.72 (USD) 0
$8.60 (USD) 0
$5.25 (USD) 0
$0.28 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 0.00
PB Ratio 2.63
PS Ratio 1.11
PCF Ratio 12.64
EV to EBITDA 6.14

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  LEAF:NYS for the last 10 years was  2.07

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  LEAF:NYS and generated a book value of  $2.19 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $4.54 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for LEAF:NYS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for LEAF:NYS for 2021 of $9.00 (USD).

LEAF:NYS Leaf Group

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
1 0 0 5.0000 Buy 2021-5-4

Current Price: 8.72 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2021 2022 2023
Mean EPS 0.74 0.17 0.28
# EPS Analysts 1 1 1
Mean Revenue 237.70 253.50 269.20
# Revenue Analysts 1 1 1
Mean Target Price 9.00
Mean Cash Flow
Mean EBITDA
Mean Net Income -2.70 6.50 11.30
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate 0.70 0.50 10.00
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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