Brigham Minerals (MNRL:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Brigham Minerals (MNRL:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Brigham Minerals(MNRL:NYS)

Energy:Oil & Gas E&P

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$18.44 (USD) 05/07/2021

Weighted Valuation
$18.35 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Overvalued by 0.5%

Valuation Models Comparables: $18.05 (USD)
Comparables: $16.35 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $20.67 this stock is Undervalued

Company Overview (MNRL:NYS USD)

Price 18.44
Range 17.11 – 18.47
52 week 8.09 – 18.44
Open 17.70
Vol / Avg. 495552/245299
Mkt cap 1.05B
P/E 17.50
Div/yield 1.13/0.05
EPS -1.11
Shares 57.16M
Beta 0.00

Company Description

Brigham Minerals Inc is a mineral acquisition company focused on acquiring oil and gas mineral rights in the United States. Its portfolio is comprised of mineral and royalty interests in the continental United States, including the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico, the SCOOP and STACK plays in the Anadarko Basin of Oklahoma, the Denver-Julesburg Basin in Colorado and Wyoming and the Williston Basin in North Dakota.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for MNRL:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of ($4.44) (USD) for MNRL:NYS

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $18.05 (USD) for MNRL:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $16.35 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Berry (bry) (BRY:NAS), Extraction Oil & Gas (XOG:NAS), Centennial Resource Dev (CDEV:NAS), NextDecade (NEXT:NAS) and Torchlight Energy Res (TRCH:NAS).

Company MNRL:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($1.11) (USD)
Book Value/Share $11.40 (USD)
Sales/Share $2.40 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $1.97 (USD)
EBITDA/Share ($0.57) (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$0.00 (USD) 0.0
$20.23 (USD) 0.0
$11.37 (USD) 0.0
$22.03 (USD) 0.0
$0.00 (USD) 0.0
MNRL:NYS Ratios Used Average Values BRY:NAS XOG:NAS CDEV:NAS NEXT:NAS TRCH:NAS
0.00 PE Ratio 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1.62 PB Ratio 7.48 0.70 0.00 0.52 4.10 24.60
7.68 PS Ratio 254.54 1.16 10.76 2.28 0.00 1003.96
9.35 PCF Ratio 11.44 2.52 22.56 9.24 0.00 0.00
0.00 EV to EBITDA 11.21 0.00 0.00 11.21 0.00 0.00

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $16.00 (USD) for MNRL:NYS

Company MNRL:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($1.11) (USD)
Book Value/Share $11.40 (USD)
Sales/Share $2.40 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $1.97 (USD)
EBITDA/Share ($0.57) (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$0.00 (USD) 0
$13.47 (USD) 0
$15.93 (USD) 0
$18.62 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 50.59
PB Ratio 1.18
PS Ratio 6.63
PCF Ratio 9.45
EV to EBITDA 14.85

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  MNRL:NYS for the last 2 years was  1.18

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  MNRL:NYS and generated a book value of  $11.49 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $13.57 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 3 analysts that provide a valuation for MNRL:NYS. The 3 analysts have a concensus valuation for MNRL:NYS for 2021 of $20.67 (USD).

MNRL:NYS Brigham Minerals

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
3 0 0 5.0000 Buy 2021-5-6

Current Price: 18.44 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2021 2022 2023
Mean EPS 0.77 0.85 0.93
# EPS Analysts 3 3 1
Mean Revenue 136.00 142.60 144.60
# Revenue Analysts 3 3 1
Mean Target Price 20.67
Mean Cash Flow 1.76 1.79 1.79
Mean EBITDA 101.30 106.10 100.20
Mean Net Income 39.40 43.40 40.30
Mean Debt Outstanding -15.30 -40.60 -61.90
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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