LyondellBasell Industries (LYB:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

LyondellBasell Industries (LYB:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

LyondellBasell Industries(LYB:NYS)

Basic Materials:Specialty Chemicals

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$114.13 (USD) 05/06/2021

Weighted Valuation
$118.96 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Undervalued by 4.2%

Valuation Models Adjusted Book Value: $121.83 (USD)
Comparables: $128.80 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $106.25 this stock is Overvalued

Company Overview (LYB:NYS USD)

Price 114.13
Range 111.04 – 114.33
52 week 52.59 – 114.13
Open 112.34
Vol / Avg. 1.44M/1.34M
Mkt cap 38.16B
P/E 16.26
Div/yield 4.20/0.04
EPS 4.24
Shares 334.35M
Beta 1.54

Company Description

LyondellBasell Industries NV is a petrochemical producer with operations in the U.S. and Europe. It operates in six segments: Olefins and Polyolefins-Americas (O&P-Americas), Olefins and Polyolefins-Europe, Asia, International (O&P-EAI), Intermediates and Derivatives (I&D), Advanced Polymer Solutions (APS), Refining and Technology. The company is a major producer of polyethylene, the world’s largest producer of polypropylene, and the second- largest producer of propylene oxide. Its chemicals are used in various consumer and industrial end products. Substantially, all of the company’s revenue is derived from product sales.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for LYB:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $156.58 (USD) for LYB:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

LYB:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $156.58 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 9.00 $194.29 $129.68
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $132.46 $190.34
Tax Rate 0.27 $171.13 $142.02
Cash Flow 7,855,707,000 $143.50 $169.65
Capital Expenditures -2,107,200,000 $153.27 $159.88
Long Term Debt 9,088,000,000 $157.93 $155.22

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $149.79 (USD) for LYB:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $128.80 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Intl Flavors & Fragrances (IFF:NYS), Ecolab (ECL:NYS), Westlake Chemical (WLK:NYS), Albemarle (ALB:NYS) and Sherwin-Williams (SHW:NYS).

Company LYB:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $7.00 (USD)
Book Value/Share $26.32 (USD)
Sales/Share $87.85 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $10.28 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $9.87 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$324.04 (USD) -65.1
$247.89 (USD) -8.4
$355.70 (USD) -39.7
$173.84 (USD) -73.9
$321.20 (USD) -49.7
LYB:NYS Ratios Used Average Values IFF:NYS ECL:NYS WLK:NYS ALB:NYS SHW:NYS
16.26 PE Ratio 46.29 45.64 74.43 30.99 43.42 36.97
4.34 PB Ratio 9.42 5.78 10.39 2.09 4.18 24.65
1.30 PS Ratio 4.05 3.27 5.96 1.65 5.22 4.14
11.10 PCF Ratio 22.01 23.31 35.54 8.73 20.43 22.02
12.50 EV to EBITDA 32.54 44.81 52.20 10.72 30.63 24.33

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $80.54 (USD) for LYB:NYS

Company LYB:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $7.00 (USD)
Book Value/Share $26.32 (USD)
Sales/Share $87.85 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $10.28 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $9.87 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$62.13 (USD) 0
$111.23 (USD) 0
$93.83 (USD) 0
$71.00 (USD) 0
$64.53 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 8.88
PB Ratio 4.23
PS Ratio 1.07
PCF Ratio 6.91
EV to EBITDA 6.54

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  LYB:NYS for the last 10 years was  4.62

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  LYB:NYS and generated a book value of  $26.35 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $121.83 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 4 analysts that provide a valuation for LYB:NYS. The 4 analysts have a concensus valuation for LYB:NYS for 2021 of $106.25 (USD).

LYB:NYS LyondellBasell Industries

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
2 3 0 3.8000 Outperform 2021-5-5

Current Price: 114.13 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2021 2022 2023
Mean EPS 11.80 11.33 13.30
# EPS Analysts 5 5 1
Mean Revenue 38,346.10 37,411.30 38,808.80
# Revenue Analysts 2 2 1
Mean Target Price 106.25
Mean Cash Flow 19.01 16.76 17.93
Mean EBITDA 7,377.70 7,060.20 7,626.90
Mean Net Income 4,754.70 4,233.60 4,434.90
Mean Debt Outstanding 12,720.30 11,274.00 8,778.60
Mean Tax Rate 13.90 16.00
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure 2,000.00 2,000.00 2,000.00

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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