Merck & Co (MRK:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Merck & Co (MRK:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Merck & Co(MRK:NYS)

Healthcare:Drug Manufacturers – General

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$78.41 (USD) 05/07/2021

Weighted Valuation
$79.39 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Undervalued by 1.3%

Valuation Models Multiples: $79.39 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $91.25 this stock is Undervalued

Company Overview (MRK:NYS USD)

Price 78.41
Range 77.89 – 78.66
52 week 72.17 – 86.93
Open 78.01
Vol / Avg. 11.63M/11.52M
Mkt cap 198.54B
P/E 28.31
Div/yield 2.48/0.03
EPS 2.78
Shares 2.53B
Beta 0.39

Company Description

Merck makes pharmaceutical products to treat several conditions in a number of therapeutic areas, including cardiometabolic disease, cancer, and infections. Within cancer, the firm’s immuno-oncology platform is growing as a major contributor to overall sales. The company also has a substantial vaccine business, with treatments to prevent hepatitis B and pediatric diseases as well as HPV and shingles. Additionally, Merck sells animal health-related drugs. From a geographical perspective, close to 40% of the firm’s sales are generated in the United States.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for MRK:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $159.50 (USD) for MRK:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

MRK:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $159.50 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 3.98 $216.59 $125.32
Terminal Growth Rate 0.00 $127.66 $212.68
Tax Rate 0.19 $171.95 $147.04
Cash Flow 25,234,500,000 $149.45 $169.54
Capital Expenditures 0 $159.50 $159.50
Long Term Debt 25,143,000,000 $159.99 $159.00

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $112.02 (USD) for MRK:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $76.77 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Amgen (AMGN:NAS), Gilead Sciences (GILD:NAS), Biogen (BIIB:NAS), AbbVie (ABBV:NYS) and Eli Lilly (LLY:NYS).

Company MRK:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $2.77 (USD)
Book Value/Share $10.64 (USD)
Sales/Share $18.91 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $4.46 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $5.22 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$206.99 (USD) 29.9
$141.99 (USD) -60.2
$89.52 (USD) -11.2
$50.94 (USD) -2.4
$119.77 (USD) -13.0
MRK:NYS Ratios Used Average Values AMGN:NAS GILD:NAS BIIB:NAS ABBV:NYS LLY:NYS
28.31 PE Ratio 74.72 21.06 266.16 14.12 43.03 29.25
7.37 PB Ratio 13.34 15.65 4.42 3.86 15.62 27.17
4.15 PS Ratio 4.73 5.93 3.28 3.39 4.07 7.00
17.56 PCF Ratio 14.21 14.25 10.27 12.11 11.61 22.82
17.18 EV to EBITDA 22.96 13.23 26.35 10.19 42.19 22.84

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $79.39 (USD) for MRK:NYS

Company MRK:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $2.77 (USD)
Book Value/Share $10.64 (USD)
Sales/Share $18.91 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $4.46 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $5.22 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$93.20 (USD) 0
$60.42 (USD) 0
$83.07 (USD) 0
$80.96 (USD) 0
$79.31 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 33.65
PB Ratio 5.68
PS Ratio 4.39
PCF Ratio 18.14
EV to EBITDA 15.20

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  MRK:NYS for the last 10 years was  4.50

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  MRK:NYS and generated a book value of  $10.65 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $47.87 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 4 analysts that provide a valuation for MRK:NYS. The 4 analysts have a concensus valuation for MRK:NYS for 2021 of $91.25 (USD).

MRK:NYS Merck & Co

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
4 1 0 4.5000 Outperform 2021-5-6

Current Price: 78.41 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2021 2022 2023
Mean EPS 6.50 7.16 7.64
# EPS Analysts 6 6 3
Mean Revenue 52,412.00 56,235.40 58,019.50
# Revenue Analysts 4 4 3
Mean Target Price 91.25
Mean Cash Flow 7.60 8.56 8.85
Mean EBITDA 22,382.20 25,221.50 25,234.50
Mean Net Income 16,428.00 18,223.70 19,014.80
Mean Debt Outstanding 12,033.70 4,541.20 -3,619.00
Mean Tax Rate 15.00 18.00 18.00
Mean Growth Rate 9.13
Mean Capital Expenditure 3,068.90 3,268.00 2,208.00

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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