Nelnet (NNI:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Nelnet (NNI:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Nelnet(NNI:NYS)

Financial Services:Credit Services

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$74.99 (USD) 05/07/2021

Weighted Valuation
$73.82 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Overvalued by 1.6%

Valuation Models Multiples: $70.03 (USD)
Adjusted Book Value: $69.44 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $82.00 this stock is Undervalued

Company Overview (NNI:NYS USD)

Price 74.99
Range 74.84 – 75.58
52 week 44.41 – 77.15
Open 75.47
Vol / Avg. 62102/54558
Mkt cap 2.89B
P/E 8.31
Div/yield 0.82/0.01
EPS 9.02
Shares 38.52M
Beta 0.71

Company Description

Nelnet Inc holds student loans and engages in student loan servicing and tuition payment processing. The majority of company revenue is interest income from the student loans the company holds. Nelnet holds student loans that it originated under the Federal Family Education Loan Program before 2010. Because of the Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act of 2010, which authorized only the federal government to originate these loans, Nelnet cannot originate new student loans, but it can and does purchase existing loans from other lenders. Virtually all other company revenue comes from fees it earns by servicing student loans owned by itself and others, including the government, and tuition payment processing for over 1200 colleges and universities as well as nearly 11,000 K-12 schools.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for NNI:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $96.04 (USD) for NNI:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

NNI:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $96.04 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 7.90 $120.36 $79.85
Terminal Growth Rate 2.90 $81.23 $118.26
Tax Rate 0.22 $103.19 $88.89
Cash Flow 377,987,205 $89.00 $103.08
Capital Expenditures -110,888,200 $94.11 $97.97
Long Term Debt 0 $96.04 $96.04

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $28.78 (USD) for NNI:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $61.68 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Goldman Sachs BDC (GSBD:NYS), LendingClub (LC:NYS), Navient (NAVI:NAS), Enova International (ENVA:NYS) and Green Dot (GDOT:NYS).

Company NNI:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $9.02 (USD)
Book Value/Share $68.32 (USD)
Sales/Share $27.17 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $5.45 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $23.02 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$37.53 (USD) -59.4
$109.75 (USD) -76.0
$89.94 (USD) -38.1
($463.11) (USD) -43.2
$0.00 (USD) 0.0
NNI:NYS Ratios Used Average Values GSBD:NYS LC:NYS NAVI:NAS ENVA:NYS GDOT:NYS
8.31 PE Ratio 1122.87 6.04 0.00 3.73 2.72 4479.00
1.10 PB Ratio 1.61 1.24 1.92 1.14 1.35 2.38
2.76 PS Ratio 3.31 7.24 4.61 1.56 1.26 1.89
13.76 PCF Ratio 5.79 6.40 2.76 4.65 2.04 13.09
0.00 EV to EBITDA 3.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.08 0.00

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $70.03 (USD) for NNI:NYS

Company NNI:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $9.02 (USD)
Book Value/Share $68.32 (USD)
Sales/Share $27.17 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $5.45 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $23.02 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$98.36 (USD) 0
$68.33 (USD) 0
$66.26 (USD) 0
$47.18 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 10.90
PB Ratio 1.00
PS Ratio 2.44
PCF Ratio 8.66
EV to EBITDA 0.00

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  NNI:NYS for the last 10 years was  1.01

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  NNI:NYS and generated a book value of  $68.63 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $69.44 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for NNI:NYS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for NNI:NYS for 2021 of $82.00 (USD).

NNI:NYS Nelnet

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
1 0 0 5.0000 Buy 2021-5-6

Current Price: 74.99 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2021 2022
Mean EPS 6.55 6.50
# EPS Analysts 1 1
Mean Revenue 1,154.10 1,150.10
# Revenue Analysts 1 1
Mean Target Price 82.00
Mean Cash Flow 9.25 8.87
Mean EBITDA
Mean Net Income 250.90 246.60
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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