Simon Property Group (SPG:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Simon Property Group (SPG:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Simon Property Group(SPG:NYS)

Real Estate:REIT – Retail

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$122.18 (USD) 05/14/2021

Weighted Valuation
$127.35 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Undervalued by 4.2%

Valuation Models Adjusted Book Value: $125.01 (USD)
(in order of importance) Comparables: $131.00 (USD)
Multiples: $127.03 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Fairly valued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $150.00 this stock is Undervalued

Company Overview (SPG:NYS USD)

Price 122.18
Range 118.75 – 122.95
52 week 54.59 – 126.75
Open 118.75
Vol / Avg. 2.47M/2.86M
Mkt cap 40.14B
P/E 34.71
Div/yield 6.00/0.04
EPS 3.59
Shares 328.54M
Beta 1.53

Company Description

Simon Property Group is the second- largest real estate investment trust in the United States. Its portfolio includes an interest in 207 properties: 106 traditional malls, 69 premium outlets, 14 Mills centers (a combination of a traditional mall, outlet center, and big-box retailers), four lifestyle centers, and 14 other retail properties. Simon’s portfolio averaged $693 in sales per square foot over the past 12 months. The company also owns a 21% interest in Klepierre, a European retail company with investments in shopping centers in 16 countries, and joint venture interests in 29 premium outlets across 11 countries.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for SPG:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $22.11 (USD) for SPG:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

SPG:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $22.11 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 11.47 $34.56 $12.29
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $13.70 $32.78
Tax Rate 0.27 $28.74 $15.49
Cash Flow 4,051,084,889 $17.28 $26.95
Capital Expenditures 0 $22.11 $22.11
Long Term Debt 23,078,515,000 $25.62 $18.60

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $131.00 (USD) for SPG:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $74.29 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Regency Centers (REG:NAS), Realty Income (O:NYS), Kimco Realty (KIM:NYS), Federal Realty Investment (FRT:NYS) and National Retail Props (NNN:NYS).

Company SPG:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $3.52 (USD)
Book Value/Share $9.20 (USD)
Sales/Share $14.30 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $7.83 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $10.86 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$184.72 (USD) -32.1
$20.74 (USD) 0.0
$158.44 (USD) 25.1
$65.36 (USD) 10.7
$219.16 (USD) 7.5
SPG:NYS Ratios Used Average Values REG:NAS O:NYS KIM:NYS FRT:NYS NNN:NYS
34.71 PE Ratio 52.48 72.47 68.06 9.25 74.03 38.57
13.28 PB Ratio 2.25 1.81 2.12 1.62 3.71 2.01
8.54 PS Ratio 11.08 10.76 13.77 8.73 10.39 11.74
15.60 PCF Ratio 19.41 21.14 20.72 15.73 23.31 16.16
19.26 EV to EBITDA 20.18 22.68 24.54 9.29 23.85 20.56

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $127.03 (USD) for SPG:NYS

Company SPG:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $3.52 (USD)
Book Value/Share $9.20 (USD)
Sales/Share $14.30 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $7.83 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $10.86 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$87.84 (USD) 0
$128.99 (USD) 0
$130.24 (USD) 0
$111.27 (USD) 0
$176.79 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 24.95
PB Ratio 14.02
PS Ratio 9.11
PCF Ratio 14.21
EV to EBITDA 16.28

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  SPG:NYS for the last 10 years was  13.40

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  SPG:NYS and generated a book value of  $9.33 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $125.01 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for SPG:NYS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for SPG:NYS for 2021 of $150.00 (USD).

SPG:NYS Simon Property Group

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
1 1 0 4.0000 Outperform 2021-5-13

Current Price: 122.18 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2021 2022
Mean EPS 4.12 4.79
# EPS Analysts 2 2
Mean Revenue 4,706.20 4,986.70
# Revenue Analysts 2 2
Mean Target Price 150.00
Mean Cash Flow 9.20 9.83
Mean EBITDA 3,499.00 3,764.20
Mean Net Income 1,490.20 1,681.80
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate 8.86
Mean Capital Expenditure 981.80 1,039.40

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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