Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Sprouts Farmers Market(SFM:NAS)

Consumer Defensive:Grocery Stores

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$25.72 (USD) 05/12/2021

Weighted Valuation
$28.25 (USD)

Overall Rating
Undervalued by 9.8%

Valuation Models Comparables: $31.09 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $28.25 this stock is Undervalued

Company Overview (SFM:NAS USD)

Price 25.72
Range 25.67 – 27.04
52 week 18.59 – 28.13
Open 26.82
Vol / Avg. 3.01M/2.12M
Mkt cap 3.04B
P/E 10.94
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS 2.43
Shares 118.13M
Beta 0.25

Company Description

Sprouts Farmers Market is an American specialty grocer offering a health-oriented assortment that focuses on fresh and naturally derived products. Its offerings are especially focused on produce, which constituted around 22% of sales in fiscal 2020. Founded in 2002, the chain is most heavily concentrated in California, which accounted for over one third of its 362 stores as of the end of fiscal 2020. All of the company’s operations are in the United States, with its stores largely located in the southern half of the country. The firm sells roughly 20,000 products (of which nearly 25% are organic), with private-label products accounting for about 16% of sales in fiscal 2020. Perishable items accounted for 57% of fiscal 2020 sales.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for SFM:NAS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $74.11 (USD) for SFM:NAS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

SFM:NAS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $74.11 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 2.50 $126.49 $51.70
Terminal Growth Rate 0.00 $52.81 $123.81
Tax Rate 0.24 $79.71 $68.51
Cash Flow 484,800,000 $67.86 $80.36
Capital Expenditures -172,237,600 $71.97 $76.25
Long Term Debt 329,845,000 $74.25 $73.97

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $52.70 (USD) for SFM:NAS. We also generated a valuation of $31.09 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Albertsons Companies (ACI:NYS), Ingles Markets (IMKTA:NAS), Weis Markets (WMK:NYS), Casey’s General Stores (CASY:NAS) and ARKO (ARKO:NAS).

Company SFM:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $2.35 (USD)
Book Value/Share $8.18 (USD)
Sales/Share $54.02 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.72 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $5.21 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$58.54 (USD) 49.7
$31.08 (USD) 93.4
$22.41 (USD) 0.0
$3.88 (USD) 90.7
$48.57 (USD) 72.2
SFM:NAS Ratios Used Average Values ACI:NYS IMKTA:NAS WMK:NYS CASY:NAS ARKO:NAS
10.94 PE Ratio 24.91 12.67 5.47 11.91 24.30 70.21
3.14 PB Ratio 3.80 6.56 1.37 1.19 4.24 5.61
0.48 PS Ratio 0.41 0.15 0.26 0.34 1.15 0.18
9.45 PCF Ratio 5.97 2.76 4.28 8.25 10.56 4.02
7.02 EV to EBITDA 9.33 5.67 4.12 5.23 12.14 19.47

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $38.51 (USD) for SFM:NAS

Company SFM:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $2.35 (USD)
Book Value/Share $8.18 (USD)
Sales/Share $54.02 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.72 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $5.21 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$43.55 (USD) 0
$34.80 (USD) 0
$33.11 (USD) 0
$27.66 (USD) 0
$53.45 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 18.53
PB Ratio 4.25
PS Ratio 0.61
PCF Ratio 10.16
EV to EBITDA 10.26

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  SFM:NAS for the last 8 years was  4.40

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  SFM:NAS and generated a book value of  $8.20 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $36.09 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 4 analysts that provide a valuation for SFM:NAS. The 4 analysts have a concensus valuation for SFM:NAS for 2021 of $28.25 (USD).

SFM:NAS Sprouts Farmers Market

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
2 4 0 3.6667 Outperform 2021-5-11

Current Price: 25.72 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2021 2022 2023
Mean EPS 2.02 2.07 2.15
# EPS Analysts 5 5 2
Mean Revenue 6,396.20 6,797.20 7,332.50
# Revenue Analysts 4 4 2
Mean Target Price 28.25
Mean Cash Flow 3.62 3.04 3.59
Mean EBITDA 465.10 465.50 484.80
Mean Net Income 245.30 237.70 242.10
Mean Debt Outstanding -28.20 -392.30
Mean Tax Rate 24.90 25.00
Mean Growth Rate -0.52
Mean Capital Expenditure 140.10 177.40 220.00

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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