Canada Goose Hldgs (GOOS:TSE) Fundamental Valuation Report

Canada Goose Hldgs (GOOS:TSE) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Canada Goose Hldgs(GOOS:TSE)

Consumer Cyclical:Apparel Manufacturing

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$46.33 (CAD) 05/14/2021

Weighted Valuation
$47.93 (CAD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Undervalued by 3.4%

Valuation Models Comparables: $47.93 (CAD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $61.79 this stock is Undervalued

Company Overview (GOOS:TSE CAD)

Price 46.33
Range 45.55 – 47.57
52 week 26.86 – 59.13
Open 46.00
Vol / Avg. 433116/237666
Mkt cap 5.11B
P/E 73.54
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS 0.63
Shares 110.34M
Beta 0.00

Company Description

Canada Goose Holdings Inc is a Canada based company that designs, manufactures, distributes, and retails premium outerwear for men, women, and children. It operates business through three segments namely, Wholesale and Direct to Consumer (DTC), Other. The DTC segment, which is the key revenue driver, comprises sales through country-specific e-commerce platforms and its company-owned retail stores located in the luxury shopping locations. The Wholesale segment comprises sales made to a mix of functional and fashionable retailers, including major luxury department stores, outdoor specialty stores, and individual shops, and to international distributors. Geographically, it has a presence in Canada, the United States, Asia, Europe, and the Rest of the World.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for GOOS:TSE

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $23.26 (CAD) for GOOS:TSE

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

GOOS:TSE Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $23.26 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 11.85 $26.26 $20.87
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $21.00 $26.09
Tax Rate 0.07 $24.83 $21.69
Cash Flow 344,777,731 $21.73 $24.79
Capital Expenditures -26,518,800 $23.16 $23.36
Long Term Debt 0 $23.26 $23.26

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $29.30 (CAD) for GOOS:TSE. We also generated a valuation of $47.93 (CAD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Aritzia (ATZ:TSE), Spin Master (TOY:TSE), BRP (DOO:TSE), NFI Group (NFI:TSE) and Richelieu Hardware (RCH:TSE).

Company GOOS:TSE End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.63 (CAD)
Book Value/Share $5.45 (CAD)
Sales/Share $7.53 (CAD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.07 (CAD)
EBITDA/Share $0.00 (CAD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$43.13 (CAD) 0.0
$26.35 (CAD) 0.0
$15.42 (CAD) 0.0
$32.29 (CAD) 0.0
$0.00 (CAD) 0.0
GOOS:TSE Ratios Used Average Values ATZ:TSE TOY:TSE DOO:TSE NFI:TSE RCH:TSE
73.54 PE Ratio 68.47 176.47 47.31 24.38 0.00 25.71
8.51 PB Ratio 4.84 9.16 4.14 0.00 1.80 4.26
6.16 PS Ratio 2.05 3.95 2.18 1.49 0.58 2.05
22.36 PCF Ratio 15.58 25.27 10.99 9.28 0.00 16.78
31.21 EV to EBITDA 18.66 23.31 16.95 11.35 27.38 14.31

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $88.57 (CAD) for GOOS:TSE

Company GOOS:TSE End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.63 (CAD)
Book Value/Share $5.45 (CAD)
Sales/Share $7.53 (CAD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.07 (CAD)
EBITDA/Share $2.23 (CAD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$44.90 (CAD) 0
$102.90 (CAD) 0
$54.70 (CAD) 0
$150.91 (CAD) 0
$89.44 (CAD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 71.27
PB Ratio 18.90
PS Ratio 7.27
PCF Ratio 72.83
EV to EBITDA 40.11

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  GOOS:TSE for the last 4 years was  18.90

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  GOOS:TSE and generated a book value of  $5.46 (CAD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $103.22 (CAD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 6 analysts that provide a valuation for GOOS:TSE. The 6 analysts have a concensus valuation for GOOS:TSE for 2022 of $61.79 (CAD).

GOOS:TSE Canada Goose Hldgs

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
5 0 1 4.3333 Outperform 2021-5-13

Current Price: 46.33 CAD

Analyst Consensus
CAD Millions 2022 2023
Mean EPS 1.68 2.11
# EPS Analysts 5 4
Mean Revenue 1,138.00 1,305.60
# Revenue Analysts 5 4
Mean Target Price 61.79
Mean Cash Flow 2.72 3.01
Mean EBITDA
Mean Net Income
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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