Wayfair (W:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Wayfair (W:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report


Consumer Cyclical:Internet Retail

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$310.65 (USD) 05/21/2021

Weighted Valuation
$363.00 (USD)

Overall Rating
Undervalued by 16.9%

Valuation Models Comparables: $443.79 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $363.00 this stock is Undervalued

Company Overview (W:NYS USD)

Price 310.65
Range 307.40 – 315.58
52 week 153.89 – 345.47
Open 311.36
Vol / Avg. 1.06M/1.73M
Mkt cap 32.37B
P/E 61.39
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS 1.86
Shares 104.2M
Beta 3.11

Company Description

Wayfair engages in e-commerce in the United States and Europe. At the end of 2020, the firm offered approximately 22 million products from more than 16,000 suppliers for the home sector under the brands Wayfair, Joss & Main, AllModern, DwellStudio, Birch Lane, and Perigold. This includes a selection of furniture, decor, decorative accent, housewares, seasonal decor, and other home goods. Wayfair was founded in 2002 and is focused on helping people find the perfect product at the right price.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for W:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $100.38 (USD) for W:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

W:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $100.38 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 14.94 $110.15 $92.13
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $93.74 $108.23
Tax Rate 0.10 $105.23 $95.53
Cash Flow 1,563,231,000 $95.54 $105.23
Capital Expenditures -246,446,800 $99.77 $101.00
Long Term Debt 28,900,000 $100.39 $100.37

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $457.35 (USD) for W:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $443.79 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were eBay (EBAY:NAS), Etsy (ETSY:NAS), ContextLogic (WISH:NAS), Qurate Retail (QRTEB:NAS) and MercadoLibre (MELI:NAS).

Company W:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $5.06 (USD)
Book Value/Share ($14.10) (USD)
Sales/Share $149.22 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $18.05 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $6.22 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$112.65 (USD) 0.0
$0.00 (USD) 0.0
$964.49 (USD) -61.0
$482.52 (USD) 99.7
$342.00 (USD) 0.0
61.39 PE Ratio 22.26 16.10 46.67 0.00 4.01 0.00
0.00 PB Ratio 12.48 11.03 31.15 6.20 1.54 0.00
2.08 PS Ratio 6.46 3.84 11.60 2.00 0.39 14.48
17.21 PCF Ratio 28.70 14.93 29.79 0.00 2.37 67.70
35.95 EV to EBITDA 54.99 9.82 34.77 0.00 5.07 170.30


Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $720.74 (USD) for W:NYS

Company W:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $5.06 (USD)
Book Value/Share ($14.10) (USD)
Sales/Share $149.22 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $18.05 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $6.22 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$857.73 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
$232.70 (USD) 0
$1,109.86 (USD) 0
$682.66 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 169.51
PB Ratio 93.38
PS Ratio 1.56
PCF Ratio 61.50
EV to EBITDA 109.76

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  W:NYS for the last 7 years was  34.57

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  W:NYS and generated a book value of  ($14.76) (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  ($510.46) (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 4 analysts that provide a valuation for W:NYS. The 4 analysts have a concensus valuation for W:NYS for 2021 of $363.00 (USD).

W:NYS Wayfair

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
4 1 1 4.0000 Outperform 2021-5-20

Current Price: 310.65 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2021 2022 2023
Mean EPS 3.83 6.60 8.98
# EPS Analysts 6 6 3
Mean Revenue 15,914.50 18,761.20 21,323.30
# Revenue Analysts 5 5 3
Mean Target Price 363.00
Mean Cash Flow 10.24 13.82 14.30
Mean EBITDA 815.20 1,151.00 1,517.70
Mean Net Income 521.80 791.20 1,097.50
Mean Debt Outstanding -2,324.80 -3,643.50 -3,399.70
Mean Tax Rate 1.20 2.00 5.00
Mean Growth Rate 3.76
Mean Capital Expenditure 256.20 325.30 194.40

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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