Tag Archives: Mexico

GGD:TSE GoGold Resources Valuation Report

GoGold Resources (GGD:TSE) Fundamental Valuation Report


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GoGold Resources$0.84 (CAD) Close Price as of01/03/2017

Based on the analysis conducted in this report, GoGold Resources, (GGD:TSE) is found to be (refer below to each of the models for detailed calculations and assumptions). Use a conversion rate of 1.3505 from USD to CAD.

Summary chart
  1. Discounted Cash Flow

    Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $1.78 (USD) for GGD:TSE
    Details of the DCF model are shown below

  2. Comparables Model

    Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $1.98 (CAD) for GGD:TSE. We also generated a valuation of $1.02 (CAD) using other metrics and comparables.

    The comparable companies were Erdene Resource Dev (ERD:TSE), Excellon Resources (EXN:TSE), Nautilus Minerals (NUS:TSE), Select Sands (SNS:TSX) and Western Copper & Gold (WRN:TSE)

    Details of the Comparables Model are shown below

  3. Multiples

    Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of $1.11 (CAD) for GGD:TSE

    Details of the Multiples Model are shown below

  4. Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

    Using an Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book we generated a value of $0.83 (USD) for GGD:TSE

    Details of the Adjusted Book Value Model are shown below

  5. Analyst Data

    In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for GGD:TSE.
    The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for GGD:TSE for 2017 of $1.10 (USD).

    Details of the Analyst Data are shown below

  6. Summary

    If you would like to explore this company further you can start with a quick DCF analysis at https://www.stockcalc.com?ss=B63CF04C210D469A8898D1CA689352F0

Company Overview (GGD:TSE CAD)

Bid:Ask 0.67:0.69
Price 0.67
Change %Change +0.00 – +0.00%
Day Range 0.65 – 0.68
52 Week Range 0.41 – 1.65
Open Price 0.66
Day Volume 204986
Average Volume 519538
P/E Ratio
Diluted EPS -0.11
Shares Outstanding 171376481
Market Cap 114,822,242

Summary chart

Detailed Company Description

GoGold Resources Inc is engaged in the discovery, exploration and development of gold, silver and copper deposits in Mexico. The Company’s projects include San Diego, Santa Gertrudis and Parral.

Financial Data for GGD:TSE

The following presents the last up to 5 years of the companies Income Statement, Balance Sheet and Cash Flow data.

Income Statement

Line Item USD Thousands 2014-9-30 2014-9-30 2014-9-30 2015-9-30 2016-9-30
Total Revenue 0 0 0 12,521 16,701
Cost Of Revenue 0 0 0 7,039 11,047
Gross Profit 0 0 0 5,482 5,654
Selling General And Administration 3,142 3,142 3,142 3,592 4,711
Research And Development 0 0 0 0 0
EBITDA -3,088 -3,088 -3,088 -1,441 -15,611
Depreciation and Amortization 48 54 54 0 0
Operating Expense 3,142 3,142 3,142 3,592 4,711
Operating Income -3,142 -3,142 -3,142 1,890 943
EBIT -3,142 -3,142 -3,142 -3,805 -19,369
Interest Income 0 0 0 0 0
Interest Expense 0 0 0 1,879 1,886
Pre-Tax Income -4,907 -4,907 -4,907 -5,684 -21,255
Tax Provision 2,300 2,300 2,300 398 -718
Net Income -7,207 -7,207 -7,207 -6,082 -20,537

Diluted Average Shares 138,890 138,890 138,890 159,591 165,086
Diluted EPS -0.04 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04 -0.13

Balance Sheet

Line Item USD Thousands 2013-9-30 2014-9-30 2014-9-30 2015-9-30 2016-9-30
Total Assets 112,449 135,225 150,935 140,596 140,651
Current Assets 31,552 12,709 14,186 16,796 29,662
Cash And Cash Equivalents 31,114 3,423 3,821 2,721 2,091
Other Short Term Investments 0 0 0 0 0
Receivables 341 6,314 7,048 1,736 3,154
Inventory 0 1,514 1,690 11,090 24,191
PrepaidAssets 96 1,458 1,628 1,249 226
Deferred Income Taxes 0 0 0 0 0
Other Current Assets 0 0 0 0 0
Total Non Current Assets 80,897 122,515 136,749 123,800 110,989
Gross PPE 80,974 122,636 136,884 122,677 114,434
Accumulated Depreciation -78 -121 -135 -5,112 -13,139
Net PPE 80,897 122,515 136,749 117,565 101,295
Goodwill 0 0 0 0 0
Intangibles 0 0 0 0 0
Other Non Current Assets 0 0 0 0 0
Total liabilities 15,705 37,401 41,746 36,740 52,553
Current Liabilities 2,879 16,686 18,624 5,803 48,703
Payables 1,629 2,995 3,343 5,629 13,563
Current debt 1,250 13,091 14,612 0 35,077
Current capital lease obligation 0 0 0 0 0
Other current liabilities 0 0 0 0 0
Non Current Liabilities 12,826 20,715 23,122 30,937 3,850
Long Term Debt 12,422 17,253 19,258 27,357 0
Long Term Capital Lease 0 0 0 0 0
Other Non Current Liabilities 0 0 0 0 0
Total Equity 96,744 97,824 109,189 103,856 88,098
Stockholders Equity 96,744 97,824 109,189 103,856 88,098
Preferred Stock 0 0 0 0 0
CapitalStock 0 0 0 0 0
Common Stock 0 0 0 0 0
Treasury Stock 0 0 0 0 0
Retained Earnings -7,733 -13,747 -15,344 -20,726 -41,263
Other Equity 0 0 0 0 0
Total Liabilities and Total Equity 112,449 135,225 150,935 140,596 140,651

Cash Flow

Line Item USD Thousands 2013-9-30 2014-9-30 2014-9-30 2015-9-30 2016-9-30
Net Income -3,643 -6,457 -7,207 -6,082 -20,537
Depreciation and amortization 31 48 54 0 0
Amortization of debt discount/premium and issuance costs 0 0 0 0 0
Investment/asset impairment charges 715 0 0 0 20,030
Investments losses (gains) 0 0 0 0 0
Deferred income taxes 15 1,926 2,150 491 -755
Stock based compensation 641 277 309 205 362
Accounts receivable 0 0 0 0 728
Inventory 0 0 0 0 -11,715
Prepaid expenses 0 0 0 0 -43
Accounts payable 0 0 0 0 0
Accrued liabilities 0 0 0 0 0
Income Tax Payable 0 0 0 0 37
Interest payable 0 0 0 0 0
Other working capital 0 0 0 0 0
Other non-cash items 959 -6,473 -7,225 1,361 8,895

Net cash provided by operating activities -1,282 -10,678 -11,919 -4,025 -2,998
Investments in property, plant, and equipment -10,930 -32,956 -36,785 -9,606 -13,365
Property, plant, and equipment reductions 0 0 0 0 0
Acquisitions, net 0 -4,776 -5,331 0 0
Purchases of investments 0 0 0 0 0
Sales/Maturities of investments 0 0 0 0 0
Other investing activities 0 0 0 0 0

Net cash used for investing activities -10,930 -37,732 -42,116 -9,606 -13,365
Debt issued 0 14,803 16,523 27,315 13,500
Debt repayment 0 0 0 -31,323 -6,000
Common stock issued 4,537 0 0 16,194 7,454
Preferred stock issued 0 0 0 0 0
Cash dividends paid 0 0 0 0 0
Other financing activities 14,060 8,311 9,276 1,173 844

Net cash provided by, used for activities 18,598 23,114 25,799 13,359 15,798
Effect of exchange rates 0 844 942 -419 -65
Net change in cash 6,386 -25,297 -28,236 -272 -630
Cash at beginning of period 24,728 27,876 31,114 3,412 2,721
Cash at end of period 31,114 3,423 3,821 2,721 2,091
Operating cash flow -1,282 -10,678 -11,919 -4,025 -2,998
Capital expenditure -10,930 -32,956 -36,785 -9,606 -13,365
Free cash flow -12,212 -43,634 -48,704 -13,631 -16,363

Ratio Data for GGD:TSE

Profitability Ratios

Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Gross Margin (%) 43.78 33.85
Operation Margin (%) 15.09 5.65
Tax Rate (%)
Net Margin (%) -48.57 -122.97
Sales per Employee 131800 146500
EBIT Margin (%) -30.39 -115.98
EBITDA Margin (%) -11.51 -93.47
Net Profit Margin (%) -48.57 -122.97
Interest Coverage -2.03 -10.27

Efficiency Ratios

Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Days In Sales 35.53 17.06
Days In Inventory 326.78 582.85
Days In Payment 219.05 315.11
Cash Conversion Cycle 143.26 284.8
Receivable Turnover 10.27 21.4
Inventory Turnover 1.12 0.63
Payment Turnover 1.67 1.16
Fixed Assets Turnover 0.1 0.15
Assets Turnover 0.09 0.12
ROE (%) -4.29 -3.7 -6.74 -6.03 -21.4
ROA (%) -4.1 -3.41 -5.29 -4.41 -14.6
ROIC (%) -4.29 -3.46 -5.49 -3.52 -12.93
FCF Sales Ratio (%)
FCF Net Income Ratio (%)
Capital Expenditure Sales Ratio (%) 76.72 80.03

Financial Health

Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Current Ratio 29.6 10.96 0.76 2.89 0.61
Quick Ratio 29.56 10.93 0.58 0.77 0.11
Long Term Debt Total Capital Ratio (%) 11.38 14.99 20.85
Long Term Debt Equity Ratio 0.13 0.18 0.26
Financial Leverage 1.01 1.16 1.38 1.35 1.6
Total Debt To Equity Ratio 0.14 0.31 0.26 0.4

Valuation Ratios

Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Sustainable Growth Rate (%) -7.67 -6.58 -4.99 -5.57 -22.56
Payout Ratio (%) 0 0 0 0 0
Cash Return -0.03 -0.11 -0.16 -0.11 -0.09
Sales Per Share 0 0 0 0.06 0.15
Book Value Per Share 0.16 0.69 0.79 0.89 0.68
CFO Per Share -0.03 -0.02 -0.02 -0.12 -0.01
FCF Per Share -0.1 -0.11 -0.33 -0.16 -0.12
Earning Yield (%) -1.84 -1.98 -1.82 -2.77 -19.58
PE Ratio
Sales Yield (%) 0 0 0 5.16 16.38
PS Ratio 19.37 6.1
Book Value Yield (%) 10.35 65.91 44.68 71.51 72.64
PB Ratio 9.66 1.52 2.24 1.4 1.38
CF Yield (%) -1.99 -1.83 -1.2 -9.52 -1.26
PCF Ratio
FCF Yield (%) -6.89 -10.77 -18.62 -12.99 -13.07
FCF Ratio
Dividend Yield (%)
Forward Dividend Yield (%)
Forward Earning Yield (%) 9.55 6.97
Forward PE Ratio 10.47 14.35
PEG Ratio
PEG Payback
Dividend Rate
Working Capital Per Share 0.01 0.11 0.01 -0.06 0.15
EV To EBITDA -119.15 -32.13 -119.77
Buy Back Yield (%) 0
Total Yield (%) 0

Valuation Details and Assumptions

Cost of Capital

We have calculated the WACC for GGD:TSE to be 8.789 based on the following assumptions:

WACC chart
Component
Value
%
K
Cost Of

Common Equity
121677301
78
Ke
9.688

Debt (Book Value)
35077000
22
Kd
5.6

Preferred (Book Value)
0
0
Kp
0

Enterprise Value
156754301
100

Weighted Average Cost of Capital
WACC
8.789

The Company’s Beta was calculated as 0.649 using a 60 month time frame and the S&P/TSX index.

Note: Higher risk premiums imply investors require greater returns

The Company’s Cost of Preferred equity was calculated using the preferred stock dividend divided by the book value of prefrerred shares for the company

The Company’s Cost of Debt was calculated as the weighted average Interest paid for the last 3 years divided by the book value of weighted average interest bearing debt outstanding

Analyst Coverage

We have 1 Analysts covering GGD:TSE.

GGD:TSE GoGold Resources

Current Price: 0.67 CAD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2017 2018 2019
Mean EPS 0.0393 0.1049 0.1704
# EPS Analysts 1 1 1
Mean Revenue 57.7 103.6 162.6
# Revenue Analysts 1 1 1
Mean Target Price 1.1000
Mean Cash Flow 0.0918 0.2753 0.3540
Mean EBITDA
Mean Net Income
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure
Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating(out of 5) Recommendation As Of
2 0 0 5.0000 Buy 2017-2-28
Based on the 1 Analysts we have covering GGD:TSE we see a consensus price target for 2017 of $1.10 (USD).

Forecasted Financial Statements

The resulting projections of the 1 analysts are shown here:

Income Statement Projections for
GGD:TSE GoGold Resources

dollars10183

Line Item USD 2014 2014 2014 2015 2016 Weighted
Average
2017 2018 2019
Total Revenue 0 0 0 12,521,000 16,701,000 100.00 57,700,000 103,600,000 162,600,000
Cost Of Revenue 0 0 0 7,039,000 11,047,000 62.42 23,659,233 42,480,010 66,672,293
Gross Profit 0 0 0 5,482,000 5,654,000 37.58 34,040,767 61,119,990 95,927,707
Selling General And Administration 3,141,612 3,141,612 3,141,612 3,592,000 4,711,000 42.50 16,107,228 28,920,431 45,390,561
Research And Development 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0
EBITDA -3,087,986 -3,087,986 -3,087,986 -1,441,000 -15,611,000 -76.61 17,933,538 32,199,559 50,537,146
Depreciation and Amortization 48,044 53,626 53,626 0 0 0.24 124,507 161,888 243,740
Operating Expense 3,141,612 3,141,612 3,141,612 3,592,000 4,711,000 42.50 9,947,880 44,027,943 69,101,771
Operating Income -3,141,612 -3,141,612 -3,141,612 1,890,000 943,000 -4.92 24,092,886 17,092,048 26,825,936
EBIT -3,141,612 -3,141,612 -3,141,612 -3,805,000 -19,369,000 -98.00 17,809,031 32,037,671 50,293,406
Interest Income 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0
Interest Expense 0 0 0 1,879,000 1,886,000 12.69 6,673,212 8,676,732 13,063,741
Pre-Tax Income -4,906,733 -4,906,733 -4,906,733 -5,684,000 -21,255,000 -118.61 11,135,819 23,360,939 37,229,665
Tax Provision 2,300,164 2,300,164 2,300,164 398,000 -718,000 8.84 4,647,930 6,043,392 9,098,969
Net Income -7,206,897 -7,206,897 -7,206,897 -6,082,000 -20,537,000 -127.45 6,487,889 17,317,547 28,130,696
Diluted Average Shares 138,890,460 138,890,460 138,890,460 159,591,424 165,086,243 165,086,243 165,086,243 165,086,243

Diluted EPS -0.04 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04 -0.13 0.04 0.10 0.17
# Of Analysts 1 1 1

As a measure of Cash flow for the company we start with the EBITDA above and adjust as you see in the Discounted Cash Flow Analysis

Discounted Cash Flow

Using a Discounted Cash flow model we generate a Value per share for GGD:TSE of $1.78 (USD)
Year 2017 2018 2019 Terminal Growth Rate(%)3
EBITDA (Cash Flow) 17933538 32199559 50537146 52053260
Normalizations & Adjustments 0 0 0 0
Normalized EBITDA 17933538 32199559 50537146 52053260
Tax Rate(%)3.3780 605794.92 1087701.11 1707144.79 1758359.13
+/- Tax Loss Carry Forward 0 0 0 0
Net Operating After Tax Cash Flow 17,327,743 31,111,858 48,830,001 50,294,901
Capital Investment Required (Estimate) -20728363 -20728363 -20728363 -20728363
Tax Shields on Capital Investment 486439 486439 486439 486439
Incremental Working Capital Requirements -6023842 -6023842 -6023842 -6023842
Discretionary Cash Flow -8,938,023 4,846,091 22,564,235 24,029,135
Terminal Multiple ( 100 / (WACC – Growth Rate )) 17.27
Capitalized Terminal Value 415,082,650
Year: (For Discounted Calculations) 1 2 3 3+
WACC: 8.79 8.79 8.79 8.79
Discounted Annual Cash Flows -8,215,926 4,094,696 17,525,308 322,388,563
Present Value of Discretionary Cash Flow 13,404,078
Discounted Terminal Value 322,388,563
Total Discounted Cash Flow 335,792,641
Present Value of Tax Shields 0
Redundant Assets 0
Enterprise Value 335,792,641
Less Interest Bearing Debt 31507000
En Block Fair MarketValue(FMV) Equity 304,285,641
Book Value of Preferred Equity 0
Value of Common Equity 304,285,641
Number of Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding 171376481
Calculated Value Per Share ($/share) $2.40 (CAD)

Comparable Companies

(Using Price Based Ratios)

We ran GGD:TSE against comparable companies in its space and generated a valution of $1.98 (CAD). The comparable companies included Erdene Resource Dev (ERD:TSE), Excellon Resources (EXN:TSE), Nautilus Minerals (NUS:TSE), Select Sands (SNS:TSX) and Western Copper & Gold (WRN:TSE)
Company GGD:TSE End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($0.16) (CAD)
Book Value/Share $0.68 (CAD)
Sales/Share $0.16 (CAD)
Cash Flow/Share ($0.03) (CAD)
EBITDA/Share ($0.12) (CAD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$0.00 (CAD) 0
$3.12 (CAD) 0
$0.83 (CAD) 0
$0.00 (CAD) 0
($0.28) (CAD) 0
GGD:TSE Ratios Used Average Values ERD:TSE EXN:TSE NUS:TSE SNS:TSX WRN:TSE
0.00 PE Ratio 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1.26 PB Ratio 9.81 30.72 3.80 0.38 10.08 4.06
5.38 PS Ratio 5.21 0.00 5.21 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 PCF Ratio 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 EV to EBITDA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Comparables chartComparables chartComparables chartComparables chartComparables chart

Other Ratios

Companies that do not have revenue yet or experience negative incomes can be valued against their peer group using other ratios such as Cash/share, Returns, Market Cap and Net PPE.

Using this approach we generate a valuation for GGD:TSE of $1.02 (CAD)
Company GGD:TSE End Date Value
Cash/Share $0.02 (CAD)
Book Value/Share $0.68 (CAD)
MarketCap 147383773
1 Year Return -0.157
NetPPE 136798897.5
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$0.00 (CAD) 0
$0.00 (CAD) 0
$0.00 (CAD) 0
$1.02 (CAD) 0
$0.00 (CAD) 0
Ratios Used Average Values
Cash / Share 0.00
Book Value / Share 0.00
Market Cap 0.00
1 Year Return 0.00
Net PPE 0.00

Multiples Approach

(We use the term multiples to describe valuing the company against its previous ratio values)
Using a multiples model we see GGD:TSE is and generate a valuation of $1.11 (CAD)
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 0.00
PB Ratio 1.62
PS Ratio 0.00
PCF Ratio 0.00
EV to EBITDA 0.00
Price Based on Comparables Adjustment Factor
$0.00 (CAD) 0
$1.11 (CAD) 0
$0.00 (CAD) 0
$0.00 (CAD) 0
$0.00 (CAD) 0
Company GGD:TSE End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($0.16) (CAD)
Book Value/Share $0.68 (CAD)
Sales/Share $0.16 (CAD)
Cash Flow/Share ($0.03) (CAD)
EBITDA/Share ($0.12) (CAD)

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for GGD:TSE for the last 6 years was 1.61

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for GGD:TSE as follows and see a value of $0.51 (USD)

By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of $0.83 (USD)

Line Item Most Recent Book Value Estimated FMV Realizable %
Total Assets 140651000 140651000 0
Current Assets 29662000 29662000 0
Cash and Cash Equilivents 2091000 2091000 100.00
Other Short Term Investments 0 0 0.00
Receivables 3154000 3154000 100.00
Inventory 24191000 24191000 100.00
Prepaid Assets 226000 226000 100.00
Deferred Income Taxes 0 0 0.00
Other Current Assets 0 0 0.00
Non-Current Assets 110989000 110989000 0
Gross PPE 114434000 114434000 0
Accumulated Depreciation -13139000 -13139000 0
Net PPE 101295000 101295000 100.00
Goodwill 0 0 0.00
Other Intangible Assets 0 0 0.00
Other Non-Current Assets 9694000 9694000 100.00
Total Liabilities 52553000 52553000 0
Current Liabilities 48703000 48703000 0
Payables 13563000 13563000 100.00
Current Debt 35077000 35077000 100.00
Current Capital Lease Obligation 0 0 0.00
Other Current Liabilities 63000 63000 100.00
Non-Current Liabilities 3850000 3850000 0
Long Term Debt 0 0 0.00
Long Term Capital Lease Obligation 0 0 0.00
Other Non-Current Liabilities 3850000 3850000 100.00
Total Equity 88098000 88098000 0
Stockholder’s Equity 88098000 88098000 0
Preferred Stock 0 0 0.00
Common Stock 88098000 88098000 0
Treasury Stock 0 0 0.00
Retained Earnings -41263000 -41263000 100.00
Other Equity 41263000 41263000 100.00
Total Liabilities and Equity 140651000 140651000 0
ANBV Equity Common Shareholders 88098000
Number Shares Outstanding 171376481
Adjusted NetBook Value per Share USD $ $0.51
Adjusted NetBook Value per Share CAD $ $0.69

Sector and Industry Analysis

GGD:TSE 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010
P:E
P:B 1.31 2.07 1.40 1.84 4.81 2.10
P:S 10.65
P:CF
EV:EBITDA -82.77 -37.84 -54.30 -88.67 -14.81
Basic Materials:Industrial Metals & Minerals 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007
P:E 26.10 22.94 16.37 29.64 35.48 36.64 21.76 10.50 65.14
P:B 1.55 1.55 1.93 3.16 3.48 3.05 2.35 4.05 3.50
P:S 8.20 2.33 10.00 16.02 46.76 11.80 14.84 32.08 40.23
P:CF 18.94 8.39 57.79 14.40 32.92 27.49 18.15 10.77 25.33
EV:EBITDA 9.31 25.95 0.38 11.80 17.35 9.09 11.56 -2.09 8.91

Summary

If you would like to explore this company further you can start with a quick DCF analysis at https://www.stockcalc.com?ss=B63CF04C210D469A8898D1CA689352F0

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