Burlington Stores (BURL:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report



Fundamental Valuation Report

Burlington Stores(BURL:NYS)

Consumer Defensive:Discount Stores

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$149.05 (USD) 20/03/2019

Weighted Valuation
$157.20 (USD)

Overall Rating
Undervalued by 5.5%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $166.67 (USD)
(in order of importance) Comparables: $139.97 (USD)
Multiples: $163.26 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (BURL:NYS USD)

Price 149.05
Range 147.67 – 150.16
52 week 127.91 – 175.74
Open 148.60
Vol / Avg. 1.74M/2.03M
Mkt cap 10.05B
P/E 24.68
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS 6.04
Shares 67.41M
Beta 0.15

Company Description

The third-largest American off-price apparel and home fashion retail firm (with 629 stores as of the end of fiscal 2017), Burlington Stores offers an assortment of products from over 5,000 brands through an everyday low price approach that undercuts conventional retailers’ regular prices by up to 65%. The company focuses on providing a treasure hunt experience, with a quickly changing array of merchandise in a relatively low-frills shopping environment. In fiscal 2017, 23% of sales came from women’s ready-to-wear apparel, 22% from accessories and footwear, 20% from menswear, 16% from youth apparel and baby, 14% from home décor, and 5% from coats. All sales come from the United States.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for BURL:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $187.07 (USD) for BURL:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

BURL:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $187.07 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 5.27 $240.17 $151.78
Terminal Growth Rate 0.30 $154.85 $235.52
Tax Rate 0.10 $198.54 $175.61
Cash Flow 949,339,500 $174.63 $199.52
Capital Expenditures -205,654,600 $184.66 $189.49
Long Term Debt 1,353,342,000 $188.08 $186.07

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $139.97 (USD) for BURL:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $172.80 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Dollar General (DG:NYS), Dollar Tree (DLTR:NAS), Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (OLLI:NAS) and Target (TGT:NYS).

Company BURL:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $6.04 (USD)
Book Value/Share $2.87 (USD)
Sales/Share $95.98 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $11.04 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $0.00 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$120.96 (USD) 57.0
$12.71 (USD) 0.0
$182.55 (USD) 2.1
$221.22 (USD) -22.8
$0.00 (USD) 19.3
BURL:NYS Ratios Used Average Values DG:NYS DLTR:NAS OLLI:NAS TGT:NYS
25.00 PE Ratio 20.03 17.55 13.07 37.38 12.11
59.17 PB Ratio 4.43 4.90 3.19 6.24 3.39
1.77 PS Ratio 1.90 1.27 1.00 4.82 0.53
15.37 PCF Ratio 20.03 14.62 11.67 47.37 6.46
16.21 EV to EBITDA 15.60 13.29 10.51 31.33 7.26

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $163.26 (USD) for BURL:NYS

Company BURL:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $6.04 (USD)
Book Value/Share $2.87 (USD)
Sales/Share $95.98 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $11.04 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $10.03 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$179.22 (USD) 0
$234.84 (USD) 0
$105.71 (USD) 0
$156.40 (USD) 0
$140.15 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 29.67
PB Ratio 81.86
PS Ratio 1.10
PCF Ratio 14.16
EV to EBITDA 13.97

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  BURL:NYS for the last 0 years was  77.15

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  BURL:NYS and generated a book value of  $2.85 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $219.82 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 3 analysts that provide a valuation for BURL:NYS. The 3 analysts have a concensus valuation for BURL:NYS for 2020 of $166.67 (USD).

BURL:NYS Burlington Stores

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
2 0 1 3.2500 Hold 2019-3-19

Current Price: 149.05 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020 2021
Mean EPS 6.24 7.07 7.95
# EPS Analysts 4 4 3
Mean Revenue 6,700.70 7,245.30 7,860.10
# Revenue Analysts 4 4 3
Mean Target Price 166.67
Mean Cash Flow 10.14 11.10 11.96
Mean EBITDA 786.50 863.40 946.50
Mean Net Income 441.20 480.10 531.40
Mean Debt Outstanding 896.20 747.80 587.00
Mean Tax Rate 18.30 21.40 22.00
Mean Growth Rate 17.59
Mean Capital Expenditure 274.70 297.90 297.10

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).
The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.
With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.
If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


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