Express (EXPR:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report


Consumer Cyclical:Apparel Stores

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Close Price/Date
$4.19 (USD) 19/03/2019

Weighted Valuation
$8.70 (USD)

Overall Rating
Undervalued by 107.6%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $10.00 (USD)
(in order of importance) Comparables: $6.92 (USD)
Multiples: $8.35 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (EXPR:NYS USD)

Price 4.19
Range 4.19 – 4.37
52 week 4.19 – 11.59
Open 4.31
Vol / Avg. 2.55M/2.29M
Mkt cap 287.13M
P/E 32.23
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS 0.13
Shares 68.53M
Beta 1.11

Company Description

Express, Inc. is a specialty apparel retailer targeting men and women between 20 and 30 years old. The company operates around hundreds of stores in North America and has franchisees in Latin America, the Middle East, and South Africa. It also sells through its e-commerce website and its mobile app. Most apparel is designed in-house and manufactured by third parties located primarily in Asia and South and Central America. The company uses third-party distribution centers in Ohio and Kentucky to receive and distribute most products. Express leases all of its retail stores, most of which are located in shopping malls.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for EXPR:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $17.94 (USD) for EXPR:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

EXPR:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $17.94 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 10.82 $20.60 $15.89
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $16.16 $20.24
Tax Rate 0.27 $19.21 $16.68
Cash Flow 150,019,692 $17.02 $18.87
Capital Expenditures 0 $17.94 $17.94
Long Term Debt 0 $17.94 $17.94

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $6.92 (USD) for EXPR:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $8.88 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Buckle (BKE:NYS), Boot Barn Holdings (BOOT:NYS), Cato (CATO:NYS), Chico’s FAS (CHS:NYS) and Duluth Holdings (DLTH:NAS).

Company EXPR:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.13 (USD)
Book Value/Share $8.92 (USD)
Sales/Share $28.54 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $1.17 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $1.56 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$2.57 (USD) -32.1
$17.30 (USD) 22.3
$0.00 (USD) -51.1
$12.37 (USD) -40.5
$9.18 (USD) -32.7
10.40 PE Ratio 19.77 9.69 22.09 20.44 9.27 37.35
0.58 PB Ratio 2.74 2.28 3.17 1.19 1.12 5.94
0.18 PS Ratio 0.89 1.03 1.09 0.46 0.33 1.54
4.43 PCF Ratio 10.53 8.49 12.97 7.47 3.80 19.89
1.36 EV to EBITDA 8.65 4.53 12.11 3.86 3.03 19.74


Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $8.35 (USD) for EXPR:NYS

Company EXPR:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.13 (USD)
Book Value/Share $8.92 (USD)
Sales/Share $28.54 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $1.17 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $1.56 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$2.00 (USD) 0
$14.27 (USD) 0
$12.36 (USD) 0
$7.03 (USD) 0
$6.08 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 15.37
PB Ratio 1.60
PS Ratio 0.43
PCF Ratio 5.98
EV to EBITDA 3.90

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  EXPR:NYS for the last 8 years was  1.66

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  EXPR:NYS and generated a book value of  $8.25 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $13.68 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for EXPR:NYS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for EXPR:NYS for 2020 of $10.00 (USD).

EXPR:NYS Express

No analyst recommendation
Current Price: not available

No analyst consensus

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).
The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.
With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.
If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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