Casey’s General Stores (CASY:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Casey’s General Stores(CASY:NAS)

Consumer Defensive:Grocery Stores

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Close Price/Date
$155.75 (USD) 02/07/2019

Weighted Valuation
$148.89 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Overvalued by 4.4%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $152.00 (USD)
(in order of importance) Adjusted Book Value: $147.19 (USD)
Multiples: $142.96 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (CASY:NAS USD)

Price 155.75
Range 155.49 – 158.21
52 week 102.85 – 157.95
Open 157.96
Vol / Avg. 256283/441958
Mkt cap 5.73B
P/E 28.27
Div/yield 1.16/0.01
EPS 5.51
Shares 36.76M
Beta 0.59

Company Description

Casey’s General Stores Inc owns and operates over 2,000 convenience stores in multiple Midwestern states of the U.S. The stores provide self-service gasoline, grocery items, and processed foods such as pizza, donuts, and sandwiches. Casey’s operates its own distribution centres, delivering its in-store products and fuel supplies. The company owns of its real estate, including nearly all of the stores, the distribution centres, and some of its subsidiaries’ facilities. More than half of the company’s stores are located in areas with populations of fewer than 5,000 people.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for CASY:NAS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $90.56 (USD) for CASY:NAS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

CASY:NAS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $90.56 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 5.38 $122.32 $69.54
Terminal Growth Rate 0.40 $71.23 $119.60
Tax Rate 0.23 $101.39 $79.74
Cash Flow 745,972,000 $75.14 $105.98
Capital Expenditures -427,349,600 $82.36 $98.76
Long Term Debt 887,831,000 $91.77 $89.35

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $78.95 (USD) for CASY:NAS. We also generated a valuation of $118.22 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Kroger (KR:NYS) and Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM:NAS).

Company CASY:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $5.51 (USD)
Book Value/Share $38.32 (USD)
Sales/Share $252.95 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $14.35 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $15.24 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$69.66 (USD) -27.1
$115.43 (USD) 11.2
$75.40 (USD) -15.0
$50.81 (USD) -3.8
$108.59 (USD) -6.4
CASY:NAS Ratios Used Average Values KR:NYS SFM:NAS
28.31 PE Ratio 12.64 9.28 16.01
4.07 PB Ratio 3.01 2.02 4.00
0.62 PS Ratio 0.30 0.15 0.45
10.87 PCF Ratio 6.13 4.32 7.95
12.51 EV to EBITDA 7.13 6.63 7.62


Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $142.96 (USD) for CASY:NAS

Company CASY:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $5.51 (USD)
Book Value/Share $38.32 (USD)
Sales/Share $252.95 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $14.35 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $15.24 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$122.55 (USD) 0
$146.95 (USD) 0
$141.79 (USD) 0
$148.69 (USD) 0
$154.80 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 22.24
PB Ratio 3.83
PS Ratio 0.56
PCF Ratio 10.36
EV to EBITDA 10.16

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  CASY:NAS for the last 10 years was  3.83

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  CASY:NAS and generated a book value of  $38.42 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $147.19 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 2 analysts that provide a valuation for CASY:NAS. The 2 analysts have a concensus valuation for CASY:NAS for 2020 of $152.00 (USD).

CASY:NAS Casey’s General Stores

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
2 1 0 4.3333 Outperform 2019-7-1

Current Price: 155.75 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2020 2021 2022
Mean EPS 5.80 6.54 7.15
# EPS Analysts 3 2 1
Mean Revenue 10,112.00 10,681.00 10,959.00
# Revenue Analysts 2 2 1
Mean Target Price 152.00
Mean Cash Flow
Mean EBITDA 626.50 685.30 743.00
Mean Net Income 201.80 233.20
Mean Debt Outstanding -1,271.00 -1,193.00 -1,067.00
Mean Tax Rate 24.80 24.50
Mean Growth Rate 11.00
Mean Capital Expenditure 489.50 478.00 493.00

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).
The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.
With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.
If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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