Peak Resorts (SKIS:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Peak Resorts(SKIS:NAS)

Consumer Cyclical:Leisure

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Close Price/Date
$4.70 (USD) 03/07/2019

Weighted Valuation
$7.00 (USD)

Overall Rating
Undervalued by 48.9%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $7.00 (USD)
(in order of importance)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (SKIS:NAS USD)

Price 4.70
Range 4.61 – 4.90
52 week 3.75 – 5.55
Open 4.70
Vol / Avg. 48286/30502
Mkt cap 71.28M
P/E 10.44
Div/yield 0.28/0.06
EPS 0.45
Shares 15.17M
Beta 0.00

Company Description

Peak Resorts Inc is a holding company. The firm owns and operates day ski and overnight drive ski resorts through its wholly-owned subsidiaries. The company and its subsidiaries operate in a single business segment: Ski Resort Operations. It currently operates 17 ski resorts primarily located in the Northeast and Midwest United States. Its ski resort operations consist of snow skiing, snowboarding and snow sports. The company also manages hotels in Bartlett, New Hampshire; West Dover, Vermont; and Hunter, New York.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for SKIS:NAS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $12.76 (USD) for SKIS:NAS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

SKIS:NAS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $12.76 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 5.82 $18.72 $8.79
Terminal Growth Rate 0.80 $9.19 $18.09
Tax Rate 0.35 $15.06 $10.45
Cash Flow 51,736,974 $10.61 $14.90
Capital Expenditures -19,524,000 $11.96 $13.55
Long Term Debt 142,188,000 $13.22 $12.29

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $10.84 (USD) for SKIS:NAS. We also generated a valuation of $7.98 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Dover Motorsports (DVD:NYS), Escalade (ESCA:NAS), Bowl America (BWL.A:ASE) and Sportsman’s Warehouse (SPWH:NAS).

Company SKIS:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.45 (USD)
Book Value/Share $5.42 (USD)
Sales/Share $12.57 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.35 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $3.34 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$6.07 (USD) 0.0
$10.68 (USD) 0.0
$19.03 (USD) -71.5
$1.70 (USD) 0.0
$0.00 (USD) -1.5
10.56 PE Ratio 13.49 13.87 8.50 24.84 6.75
0.88 PB Ratio 1.97 1.26 1.31 3.34 1.97
0.38 PS Ratio 1.51 1.60 0.95 3.32 0.19
2.02 PCF Ratio 22.67 11.12 53.98 21.93 3.64
6.24 EV to EBITDA 9.15 7.36 5.61 14.20 9.44


Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $27.56 (USD) for SKIS:NAS

Company SKIS:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.45 (USD)
Book Value/Share $5.42 (USD)
Sales/Share $12.57 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.35 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $3.34 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$74.50 (USD) 0
$7.08 (USD) 0
$7.31 (USD) 0
$15.65 (USD) 0
$33.26 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 165.56
PB Ratio 1.31
PS Ratio 0.58
PCF Ratio 6.66
EV to EBITDA 9.96

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  SKIS:NAS for the last 3 years was  1.31

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  SKIS:NAS and generated a book value of  $7.68 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $10.04 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for SKIS:NAS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for SKIS:NAS for 2020 of $7.00 (USD).

SKIS:NAS Peak Resorts

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
2 0 0 5.0000 Buy 2019-7-2

Current Price: 4.7 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2020 2021
Mean EPS -0.36 0.09
# EPS Analysts 2 1
Mean Revenue 198.80 205.40
# Revenue Analysts 2 1
Mean Target Price 7.00
Mean Cash Flow
Mean EBITDA 43.50 45.20
Mean Net Income -0.30 1.90
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate 29.00 29.00
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).
The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.
With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.
If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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