Elastic (ESTC:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report



Fundamental Valuation Report

Elastic(ESTC:NYS)

Technology:Software-Application

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$78.57 (USD) 02/07/2019

Weighted Valuation
$90.66 (USD)

Overall Rating
Undervalued by 15.4%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $96.00 (USD)
(in order of importance) Comparables: $89.86 (USD)
Adjusted Book Value: $76.26 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Fairly valued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (ESTC:NYS USD)

Price 78.57
Range 74.92 – 78.59
52 week 60.52 – 99.07
Open 75.58
Vol / Avg. 1.15M/1.82M
Mkt cap 5.68B
P/E 0.00
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS -1.86
Shares 75.35M
Beta 0.00

Company Description

Elastic NV is a search company. It created the Elastic Stack, a powerful set of software products that ingest and store data from any source and in any format, and perform search, analysis, and visualization in milliseconds or less. The company also offers software solutions built on the Elastic Stack that address a wide variety of use cases including app search, site search, enterprise search, logging, metrics, business analytics, and security analytics.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for ESTC:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of ($23.69) (USD) for ESTC:NYS

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $37.22 (USD) for ESTC:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $89.86 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Descartes Systems Gr (DSG:TSE), Open Text (OTEX:TSE), Enghouse Systems (ENGH:TSE), Constellation Software (CSU:TSE) and Ceridian HCM Holding (CDAY:TSE).

Company ESTC:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($1.86) (USD)
Book Value/Share $3.49 (USD)
Sales/Share $4.95 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share ($0.44) (USD)
EBITDA/Share ($1.74) (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$0.00 (USD) 0.0
$39.95 (USD) 0.0
$34.50 (USD) 0.0
$0.00 (USD) 0.0
$0.00 (USD) 0.0
ESTC:NYS Ratios Used Average Values DSG:TSE OTEX:TSE ENGH:TSE CSU:TSE CDAY:TSE
0.00 PE Ratio 53.39 92.49 40.46 28.50 52.10 0.00
21.39 PB Ratio 11.44 5.67 2.90 4.98 39.55 4.13
15.09 PS Ratio 6.97 10.08 3.87 5.46 6.32 9.14
0.00 PCF Ratio 76.95 34.89 13.05 19.16 29.03 288.61
0.00 EV to EBITDA 25.98 36.22 12.12 14.90 23.02 43.65

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $98.24 (USD) for ESTC:NYS

Company ESTC:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($1.86) (USD)
Book Value/Share $3.49 (USD)
Sales/Share $4.95 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share ($0.44) (USD)
EBITDA/Share ($1.74) (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$0.00 (USD) 0
$74.52 (USD) 0
$121.96 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 0.00
PB Ratio 21.35
PS Ratio 24.64
PCF Ratio 0.00
EV to EBITDA 0.00

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  ESTC:NYS for the last 0 years was  21.36

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  ESTC:NYS and generated a book value of  $3.57 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $76.26 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 4 analysts that provide a valuation for ESTC:NYS. The 4 analysts have a concensus valuation for ESTC:NYS for 2020 of $96.00 (USD).

ESTC:NYS Elastic

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
2 2 0 4.0000 Outperform 2019-7-1

Current Price: 78.57 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2020 2021 2022
Mean EPS -1.34 -1.26 -1.16
# EPS Analysts 3 3 1
Mean Revenue 389.50 506.00
# Revenue Analysts 3 3
Mean Target Price 96.00
Mean Cash Flow -0.39 -0.26
Mean EBITDA
Mean Net Income -104.90 -110.00
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate 7.05 6.50
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure 49.70 31.30

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).
The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.
With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.
If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


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