All posts by Brian Donovan

Brian is a Chartered Business Valuator (CBV) and President of Patchell Brook Equity Analytics Inc. whose flagship product is Stockcalc.com. Stockcalc is a collaborative website for retail investors focused on fundamental valuation.

Top 20 Undervalued Stocks by Market Cap Class November 2021 Energy Sector

What are the top 20 Undervalued Stocks (selected over 5 market cap classes) in the Energy Sector? I have used the analysis tools on the website stockcalc.com to generate the content of this blog post. Have a look down the Welcome page www.stockcalc.com/Welcome for some of the free lists and reports available.

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Undervalued Stocks – Energy Sector

Today our focus is the Energy sector and we are looking at companies that are undervalued based on our Weighted Average Valuation (WAV) calculation which we do for the 8000 stocks each night in the StockCalc database.

The Energy sector is comprised of companies in the following Industry groups: Oil & Gas Drilling, E&P, Integrated, Midstream, Refining & Marketing, Equipment & Services as well as Thermal Coal and Uranium.

The sector includes companies that are engaged in exploring, drilling, producing, manufacturing, refining, marketing and transporting of petroleum and natural gas as well as companies that own and operate oilfield pipelines or refine, gather, market, and sell petroleum and petroleum products. This group also includes companies that mine thermal coal or mine, refine, produce, and mill uranium and uranium-related materials.

The stocks are generally held both for their dividends and capital appreciation.

We generate our Weighted Average Valuation (WAV) from 5 models and Analyst consensus. Overview of the models used: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF value) is a valuation technique where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. A Comparables model values the company on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies. We actually do 3 types of comparables models. An Adjusted Book Value (ABV) is calculated by multiplying book value per share by its historical Price to Book ratio. If we have Analyst coverage we look at the consensus target price.

Today’s Data – Energy

In the table below we can see the close price (Nov 26th 2021) and valuation for these companies along with the ratio of valuation to price as well as their market cap class and average trading volume.

Stock Symbol Company Name Close Price($) Valuation ($) Value/ Price M Cap Class Average Volume
PTR-N PetroChina Co 44.28 60.14 1.36 Large Cap 269946
TRP-N TC Energy 47.63 53.16 1.12 Large Cap 1203292
TOU-T Tourmaline Oil 43.96 48.64 1.11 Large Cap 2937667
SNP-N China Petroleum 46.85 51.26 1.09 Large Cap 200676
ENB-N Enbridge 39.72 43.04 1.08 Large Cap 4829399
WES-N Western Midstream 21.13 26.05 1.23 Mid Cap 830993
ETRN-N Equitrans Midstream 10.21 12.33 1.21 Mid Cap 2631998
CTRA-N Coterra Energy 19.99 23.77 1.19 Mid Cap 7171731
PKI-T Parkland 34.20 39.68 1.16 Mid Cap 477090
ENBL-N Enable Midstream Partners 7.40 8.50 1.15 Mid Cap 681337
TGS-N Transportadora de Gas 4.84 7.90 1.63 Small Cap 169565
HWX-T Headwater Exploration 4.71 7.14 1.52 Small Cap 1102829
PBFX-N PBF Logistics 12.47 16.52 1.32 Small Cap 281505
SRLP-N Sprague Resources 15.78 20.66 1.31 Small Cap 61678
CIVI-N Civitas Resources 51.80 67.00 1.29 Small Cap 505568
HMLP-N Hoegh LNG Partners 4.65 9.57 2.06 Micro Cap 95340
TNP-N Tsakos Energy Navigation 7.80 16.00 2.05 Micro Cap 107912
ITE-T i3 Energy 0.19 0.36 1.92 Micro Cap 418814
GLOP-N GasLog Partners 4.93 8.61 1.75 Micro Cap 210116
BPT-N BP Prudhoe Bay 4.00 5.81 1.45 Micro Cap 196440

N-NYSE, Q-Nasdaq, A-American, T-Toronto, X-Toronto Venture

Lets look at a few companies…

Lets look at a couple of the companies on this list to get a better understanding of them.

TC Energy

https://www.tcenergy.com
TransCanada Corp is an energy infrastructure company. Its business segments include, Natural Gas Pipelines, Liquid Pipelines and Energy. The company has pipeline and power generation assets in Canada, the United States, and Mexico.

Tsakos Energy Navigation

https://www.tenn.gr
Tsakos Energy Navigation Ltd operates crude oil and petroleum product tankers which provide marine transportation services for national, major and other independent oil companies and refiners. It also transport liquefied natural gas.

The content presented here is in part from the website stockcalc.com and is provided on an as is or as available basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. You should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment decision.

Alphabet (GOOGL:NAS) and Amazon.com (AMZN:NAS) Are Undervalued

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I have used the analysis tools on the website StockCalc.com to generate some of the content of this blog post. These results and 1 free valuation report each week are available at www.StockCalc.com/Welcome.

Undervalued Stocks on NASDAQ

Today we are looking at companies that are considered undervalued based on the Analyst data in the StockCalc database.

In the table below we can see the close price and target price for these companies along with the number of analysts covering the stock. We also have included the fiscal year for the target price as sometimes these analyst targets are not for the current or even the next fiscal year.

There can be a number of reasons why a company would be on this list. What is particularly interesting are companies with a large analyst following that make this list. We need to dig deeper into these companies to understand why the difference in price versus target.

Today’s Data on NASDAQ

Today’s data is for companies listed on the NASDAQ.

Symbol Name Target Year Close Price Target Price Mean Currency Target Price # of Estimates
GOOGL Alphabet Inc 2021 2714.77 3031.88 USD 8
GOOG Alphabet Inc 2021 2740.72 3031.88 USD 8
AMZN Amazon.com Inc 2021 3344.94 4276.67 USD 9
BKNG Booking Holdings Inc 2021 2182.98 2508.00 USD 5
ZM Zoom Video Communications Inc 2022 383.47 482.50 USD 4
LRCX Lam Research Corp 2022 647.96 750.00 USD 3
MELI MercadoLibre Inc 2021 1756.27 2100.00 USD 1
ROKU Roku Inc 2021 391.47 485.00 USD 4
BGNE BeiGene Ltd 2021 321.45 413.00 USD 1
Z Zillow Group Inc 2021 101.15 191.67 USD 3
ZG Zillow Group Inc 2021 103.24 191.67 USD 3
NVAX Novavax Inc 2021 189.89 294.00 USD 1
MKSI MKS Instruments Inc 2021 156.87 250.50 USD 2
MRTX Mirati Therapeutics Inc 2021 151.40 291.10 CAD 3
AMED Amedisys Inc 2021 191.34 333.75 USD 4
ALLK Allakos Inc 2021 78.65 230.00 USD 1
VIR Vir Biotechnology Inc 2021 38.32 135.00 USD 1
YY JOYY Inc 2021 49.08 142.00 USD 3
ALGT Allegiant Travel Co 2021 191.80 285.50 USD 2
LGND Ligand Pharmaceuticals Inc 2021 110.03 226.67 USD 3
TPTX Turning Point Therapeutics Inc 2021 64.21 162.00 USD 4
BAND Bandwidth Inc 2021 119.97 227.00 USD 1
TREE LendingTree Inc 2021 184.77 275.00 USD 1
AXSM Axsome Therapeutics Inc 2021 51.16 225.00 USD 1
MDGL Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc 2021 90.95 181.50 USD 4

Let’s look at a few companies…

Lets look at a couple of the companies on this list to get a better understanding of them.

GOOGL:NAS Alphabet

https://www.abc.xyz
Alphabet has 150028 employees and is headquartered in United States. Alphabet Inc is a provider of internet content products and portals. Its suite of brands includes Search, Android, YouTube, Apps, Maps & Ads.

AMZN:NAS Amazon.com

https://www.amazon.com
Amazon.com has 1298000 employees and is headquartered in United States. Amazon.com Inc is an online retailer. The Company sells its products through the website which provides services, such as advertising services and co-branded credit card agreements. It also offers electronic devices like Kindle e-readers and Fire tablets.

Free Valuation

Run a valuation on any of the companies listed above at www.StockCalc.com/Welcome or subscribe at our Stockcalc Facebook Page to receive this list each day Stockcalc Facebook.

The content presented here is in part from the website StockCalc.com and is provided on an as is or as available basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. You should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment decision.

Cielo Waste Solutions (CMC:TSX) and Emerita Resources (EMO:TSX) Are Biggest Stock Gainers YTD on TSX

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I have used the analysis tools on the website StockCalc.com to generate some of the content of this blog post. These results and 1 free valuation report each week are available at www.StockCalc.com/Welcome.

Biggest Stock Gainers Year to Date on TSX

Today we are looking at companies that have had the greatest percentage increase in share price year to date.

Top 25 Companies

Lists like these are always interesting to look at as they tell more than one story. Companies that are experiencing dramatic increases in share price can do so for a variety of reasons. These can include, the sector they are in has turned (such as companies in the commodities space or a new sector that has huge future potential), the company is in talks to be taken over, or the company has restructured and earnings are turning better than expected.

In this list we have selected the top 25 companies based on their percentage increase in share price year to date.

Today’s Data on TSX

Today’s data is for companies listed on the TSX Venture Exchange.

Symbol Name Total Return % Period
CMC Cielo Waste Solutions Corp 1370.59 YTD
EMO Emerita Resources Corp 800.00 YTD
NBM NEO Battery Materials Ltd 677.78 YTD
VRY Petro-Victory Energy Corp 587.50 YTD
SGMD Salona Global Medical Device Corp 557.17 YTD
RMK Red Moon Resources Inc 554.55 YTD
BLOK GlobalBlock Digital Asset Trading Ltd 533.33 YTD
LORD St. James Gold Corp 493.75 YTD
WMG Western Magnesium Corp 490.91 YTD
CPAU CopAur Minerals Inc 479.31 YTD
AN Arena Minerals Inc 466.67 YTD
FIL Filo Mining Corp 464.25 YTD
PUL Pulse Oil Corp 433.33 YTD
IFOS Itafos Inc 428.00 YTD
WML Wealth Minerals Ltd 423.53 YTD
DELX Delphx Capital Markets Inc 408.33 YTD
DB Decibel Cannabis Co Inc 385.71 YTD
VPT VentriPoint Diagnostics Ltd 372.22 YTD
NHHH FuelPositive Corp 354.55 YTD
HME Hemisphere Energy Corp 350.00 YTD
EDDY Edison Battery Metals Corp 333.33 YTD
AVN Avanti Energy Inc 329.27 YTD
AMC Arizona Metals Corp 326.47 YTD
IDH.H IDG Holdings Inc 320.00 YTD
AVX Altair Resources Inc 316.67 YTD

Let’s look at a few companies…

Lets look at a couple of the companies on this list to get a better understanding of them.

CMC:TSX Cielo Waste Solutions

https://www.cielows.com
Cielo Waste Solutions has None employees and is headquartered in Canada. Cielo Waste Solutions Inc is engaged in refining of municipal and construction waste into high-grade renewable fuels. Its technologies are focused on materials recovery, renewable diesel and landfill reduction through responsible diversion practices.

EMO:TSX Emerita Resources

http://www.emeritaresources.com
Emerita Resources has None employees and is headquartered in Canada. Emerita Resources Corp is engaged in the acquisition, exploration, and development of mineral properties, with its primary focus on the Las Morras Property and a new project located in Spain.

Free Valuation

Run a valuation on any of the companies listed above at www.StockCalc.com/Welcome or subscribe at our Stockcalc Facebook Page to receive this list each day Stockcalc Facebook.

The content presented here is in part from the website StockCalc.com and is provided on an as is or as available basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. You should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment decision.

Quantitative Analysis and Multiple Linear Regression Modeling using StockCalc Valuation data

Quantitative Analysis and Multiple Linear Regression Modeling
using StockCalc Valuation data

September 2021

Executive Summary:

StockCalc is a fundamental valuation platform. We generate valuations each night for the 8000 equities trading on NYS, NAS, ASE, TSX and TSX-V using an algorithmic approach that has been historically correct 78% of the time.

To build upon our existing product, we created a series of multiple linear regression models. We included the 6 fundamental valuation data points we generate each night (described below) along with technical indicators (Moving Averages, RSI, MACD) and commodity prices.

Using the R programming language we built linear regression models for each stock each night to enable us to test the dependent variables of recent close price, price 13, 26 or 52 weeks later against the series of independent variables (our fundamental valuations, technical indicators and commodity prices)

Our goal was to determine if we could improve upon our current approach to calculating a weighted average valuation (“The Algo”) by using this MLR approach (“The MLR”). Our current approach is correct 78% of the time going out 12 months. That means our valuation is reached 78% of the time over the next 12 months (we refer to as %success) with an average 10.2% difference between close price and our valuation (we refer to as %difference).

From the Analysis …

Near dated regression models (using most recent Close price) were able to outperform The Algo. We looked at both % success rate and % difference (price versus valuation) when making this determination.

Of note: the % difference we refer to in this document shows what the results would be if we assume returns are locked in when price reaches our valuation. Part of the analysis then looked at additional upside if we used a trailing stop protocol to let winning stocks continue to run out for 52 weeks. Those results exceed 40% annual returns once we netted winners against losers (winners up 77%, losers down 20 %)

Stocks on average reach our valuation in 13 weeks implying we can be running these models multiple times each year to magnify the returns. We will be doing more work on this to better quantify results for multiple successful models per year.

Contents

Executive Summary:
Focused on valuation; empowered by analytical tools.
Background:
“The Algo”
Methodology aka “The MLR”
SQL
Back-testing:
Initial Results:
Improving the Results:
The difference between markets:
The finer details:
There is more upside here:
How can you use/access this data?
About the author
Appendix 1: Description of the 5 fundamental valuation models used in Stockcalc
Appendix 2: Independent variables available for the regression models

Figures and Tables

Table 1 Initial regression results – various indexes
Table 2 Extended Results – Capturing 10% or more difference
Table 3 Comparing pre/including Covid results

Figure 1 Regression set-up for 13, 26 and 52 week analysis
Figure 2 sample regression logic using ADBE:NAS

Focused on valuation; empowered by analytical tools.

StockCalc is a company focused on providing the platform and data to enable its clients to undertake Fundamental Valuation of publicly traded companies. The modules that have been created help those looking to analyze companies arrive at a more thorough understanding of the value of the equity in the company they are examining.

Background:

The Stockcalc database contains 8000 equities that are run through 5 fundamental valuation models each night. We also examine Analyst consensus data and will use it if it out-performs our analysis (This occurs 5-15% of the time) Our data and analysis is available for advisors and analysts on TD Ameritrade’s Veo open Access platform as well as Schwab’s Advisor platform. StockCalc is also available in the Globe and Mail platform in Canada.

We generate up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database each night.

DCF: Discounted Cash Flow
PComps: Price Based (PE, PB, PCF) comparables
OComps: Other comparables (for companies that are not profitable)
Mul: Multiples (A comparables using the companies’ historic data)
ABV: Adjusted Book value
Analyst: Consensus Analyst Target Value

A detailed description of each of these is available in Appendix 1

Each night once all the models have been run for the 8000 stocks in the database we generate a Weighted Average Valuation (WAV) for each stock using an algorithm that selects the various models based on a series of criteria (industry, historic accuracy, range) and weighting.

From 2013 to mid 2020 our WAV values have been correct 78% of the time for the S&P 500 list of companies looking out over the next 12 months (ie Close price moved beyond our WAV over the next 12 months 78% of the time). We wanted to see if we could improve on that by generating an MLR model for each company each day. Using an MLR model approach also allowed us to incorporate other independent variables such as technical indicators and commodity prices.

“The Algo”

Looking at the S&P 500 list The Algo modeling has been correct 78% of the time: We define that as the price reached our valuation (either to the up or down side) 78% of the time over the next 12 months. By comparison, analyst consensus data is correct on average 50% of the time (various studies)

From 2013-01-01 to 2020-06-30 (ie 52 weeks ago so we can test against next 52 weeks)

Our Dataset has 368,221 records of daily weighted average valuations (we call those our WAV’s)

# records where our WAV was > ClosePrice and next 52 Week high > WAV: 140,897
# records where our WAV was <= ClosePrice and next 52 Week low <= WAV: 146,845
(140897 + 146845) / 368221 = 78%

Notes: models were initially constructed first of the month until Aug 2018 when we started running them daily for the 8000 stocks in the database.

Methodology aka “The MLR”

The regression set-up:

Each night we run the fundamental models against the 8000 stocks in our database. We constructed code using the R programming language (https://www.r-project.org/about.html) to enable us to select the data and build the regression models. We used the same daily valuation data as mentioned in The Algo to ensure consistency. We then constructed a series of linear regression models using R. Each stock was regressed each day after 50 days of data was available (generally the models started early 2017 as we had monthly data until 2018)

We tested four (4) time frames with our modeling:

Recent close price: We programmatically built the regression models using all data from 2013-01-01 to the run date less 1 day then plugged the current days model values (Fundamentals like DCF, Comparables etc along with technical or commodity prices if selected by the regression equation) to generate what the recent close price should be based on the regression equation.

Price 13, 26 and 52 Weeks later: For the other 3 time frames we needed to go back 13, 26 or 52 weeks into the data to construct the regression models as our dependent variable was the actual price 13, 26 or 52 weeks later so we could not use their present day values. We then used the recent day fundamental, technical or commodity prices (as selected by the regression equation) to generate a next 13, 26 and 52 week price estimate.

It is very important to re-iterate for these three time frames we needed to go back 13, 26 or 52 weeks into the data to construct the regression models as our dependent variable was the actual price 13, 26 or 52 weeks later. This meant we would be using data from 2013-01-01 to a given date to generate the regression equation then plugging in the data from the date we were calculating which was 13, 26 or 52 weeks later. You will see the impact in the results tables later on. The following figure depicts the set-up:



Figure 1 Regression set-up for 13, 26 and 52 week analysis

SQL:

The initial results from the r programs were written to excel then imported into our SQL database for easier processing. Our SQL database contains all the analysis we undertake each night along with the financial, ratio and price data used to generate the valuations.

Determining Model Success:

To determine if our estimate calculations were correct we compared our estimate price to most recent close to first determine if we show the stock as under or over-valued. We then looked out 13, 26 or 52 weeks to see if the High (if undervalued) or Low (if Overvalued) went beyond our estimate price. If they did we considered the model successful for that stock, date and time frame.

In the table below we show these details for Adobe (ADBE :NAS) as of Dec 31, 2018 close.

There are four reference points: Close, 13, 26 and 52 which refer to when (in the past) the regression equation was constructed (using last nights close data back to 52 weeks ago) The data from the date we are running was then run though each of those regression equations to determine what we calculate the price would be Today, 13 , 26 and 52 weeks from now.



Figure 2 Sample regression logic using ADBE:NAS

Our valuation database contains analyses going back to January 1st, 2013. For each company in the S&P 500 we generated an MLR for each date up to June 30th 2020 (52 Weeks), Dec 30th (26 week), (Mar 31st 2021 (13 Week) and June 30th 2021 (Recent close)

Initial Results:

We started by selecting all stocks in a given ETF to proxy the index lists. We used the DIA (Dow 30), SPY (S&P 500), QQQ (Nasdaq 100), IWM (Russell 2000) and XIU (Canada – SP/TSX 60). In the r code we ran each stock each day once we had 50 days of valuation available (we had monthly valuations 2013-mid-2018 then daily thereafter).

From the table below you see the initial results: For example our Algo (WAV columns) for the SPY was correct 76.93 % of the time with an average spread of 7.62% between the close price and what our valuation calculation was. Looking across the columns you see the close price had the highest % success due to the smallest time frame. It also had the least spread between price and value. For the DIA and SPY The Algo outperformed the regressions built with 52 and 26 week old data but the 13 week old data was more correct than our Algo with higher % difference between price and value.

The r2 column shows the minimum value selected based on each equations r2 value. For each model each day we captured the r2 value and used it to help in the selection. We did not track r2 for WAV.

This was the base case run to understand how The Algo compared to the MLR.


Table 1 Initial regression results – various indexes

Improving the Results:

In the next step we started to select sub-groups of data to run though the regression models. In this example we selected all stocks that showed a 10-50% difference between price and our valuation (for the Close, 13, 26 and 52 week analysis).

In the table below you can see there are 2 things happening compared to the previous table. Our average % difference between price and value has jumped to between 12 and 25% and our % success has been reduced due to the higher spread between price and value.

Note how well the close price columns performed in this table. We see a 75 to almost 90% success rate using 1 day old data to generate the regression equations with the % difference ranging from 12 to 17%. (Again noting results shown assume returns are locked in when price reaches our valuation – more on this below)

The Algo was able to outperform on the XIU data here (S&P/TSX 60 stocks) is also of note.


Table 2 Extended Results – Capturing 10% or more difference

The difference between markets:

As you can also see from the tables above we show smaller % difference between price and value for the DOW (DIA) than the SPY and IWM. This inherently makes sense given the coverage and ownership the DOW 30 stocks have compared to for example the Russell 2000 list.

The finer details:

To eliminate the impact of Covid on the markets we also tested data from 2017-2019. You can see the numbers remained consistent with the 2018 markets dragging down overall results slightly.


Table 3 Comparing pre/including Covid results

The real value starts here:

The results shown above assume returns are locked in when price reaches our valuation. To fine tune this further we selected the S&P 500 list of Undervalued stocks to Dec 31 2019 (to eliminate Covid impact again) where our models were 20% or higher than close price. We had 40 stocks during that time period meeting this criteria (64 records including Stocks that met the criteria more than once).

Thirty-five of these stocks were successful (our valuation target was exceeded over next 12 months) for an average return of 77% when we let these stocks run out for 52 weeks. The 5 stocks that were not successful had an average return of -20% 52 weeks later for a combined return of 42.5%. A trailing stop program would easily capture this additional return.

In our database, our WAV valuation models on average are being reached within 13 weeks. This implies the returns we presented in Table 2 could be achieved four times each year. The net 13 week return column in Table 2 ranges from 10 to 15% therefore 40% to 60% returns less negative returns for those stocks not achieving valuation.

The next steps in this process will be analyzing the data further to construct a protocol that can select the superior model (WAV, Close, 13) as well as reassessing when price reaches our valuation to see if we would continue to hold the equity.

How can you use/access this data?

The ability to slice and separate the data is inherent in the r code and resulting SQL database. We are well positioned to assist you with this data and analysis. StockCalc has a powerful API that provides connections for funds and firms looking to access this data. For more information please reach out to Brian to discuss

About the author

Brian Donovan is the President of StockCalc and is a Chartered Business Valuator (CBV – CICBV Website). He obtained in Finance MBA in 1999 from Wilfrid Laurier University in Canada and worked in a variety of capacities from MyPlant.com in the dot com days to founder of StockCalc in 2013. Brian can be reached by email at brian.donovan@stockcalc.com

Appendix 1: Description of the 5 fundamental valuation models used in Stockcalc

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

Price Comparables
The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Other Comparables
We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples
Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

Adjusted Book Value
With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

Analyst Consensus
If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Appendix 2: Independent variables available for the regression models

Valuation:
DCF, P_Comps, O_Comps, Multiples, Adjusted Book, Analyst Consensus

Technical:
30 and 200 Day moving averages, MACD, RSI

Commodity:
Natural Gas, WTI, Brent, Gasoline, Propane
Aluminum, Copper, Nickel, Steel, Zinc, Iron Ore, Coal, Cobalt, Lead, Moly, Tin
Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium,
Lumber, Corn

Top 20 Undervalued Stocks by Market Cap Class September 2021 Industrials Sector

What are the top 25 Undervalued Stocks (selected over 5 market cap classes) in the Industrials Sector? I have used the analysis tools on the website stockcalc.com to generate the content of this blog post. Have a look down the Welcome page www.stockcalc.com/Welcome for some of the free lists and reports available.

Or start your StockCalc 30 Day Free Trial

Undervalued Stocks – Industrials Sector

Today our focus is the Industrials sector and we are looking at companies that are undervalued based on our Weighted Average Valuation (WAV) calculation which we do for the 8000 stocks each night in the StockCalc database.

The Industrials sector is comprised of companies in the following Industries: Aerospace & Defense, Airlines, Railroads, Marine Shipping, Trucking, Logistics, Engineering & Construction, Building Products & Equipment, Metal Fabrication, Waste Management and a number of similar industries. This sector includes companies that manufacture, provide services, staffing and employment, manage infrastructure, distribute and supply industrial equipment, air services, transportation or trucking of freight and people.

The stocks in this sector are held for both their dividends and capital appreciation.

We generate our Weighted Average Valuation (WAV) from 5 models and Analyst consensus. Overview of the models used: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF value) is a valuation technique where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. A Comparables model values the company on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies. We actually do 3 types of comparables models. An Adjusted Book Value (ABV) is calculated by multiplying book value per share by its historical Price to Book ratio. If we have Analyst coverage we look at the consensus target price.

Today’s Data – Industrials

In the table below we can see the close price (Sep 17th 2021) and valuation for these companies along with the ratio of valuation to price as well as their market cap class and average trading volume.

Stock Symbol Company Name Close Price($) Valuation ($) Value/ Price M Cap Class Average Volume
GPN-N Global Payments 162.03 221.14 1.36 Large Cap 2049742
LHX-N L3Harris Technologies 222.46 257.79 1.16 Large Cap 2215142
UPS-N United Parcel Service 190.03 218.97 1.15 Large Cap 4481977
NOC-N Northrop Grumman 350.24 399.46 1.14 Large Cap 1893712
PCAR-Q PACCAR 81.55 92.25 1.13 Large Cap 4593971
AL-N Air Lease 37.81 49.00 1.30 Mid Cap 1442324
SNDR-N Schneider National 22.38 27.15 1.21 Mid Cap 868646
HII-N Huntington Ingalls Indus 194.99 231.67 1.19 Mid Cap 467525
ENS-N EnerSys 75.84 88.47 1.17 Mid Cap 820547
TKR-N Timken 67.42 77.98 1.16 Mid Cap 1007003
CSTE-Q Caesarstone 13.08 18.78 1.44 Small Cap 220622
KNOP-N KNOT Offshore Partners 18.12 25.00 1.38 Small Cap 64206
PAE-Q PAE 5.90 8.15 1.38 Small Cap 1030060
PRIM-Q Primoris Services 26.14 35.70 1.37 Small Cap 557053
CHR-T Chorus Aviation 3.87 5.19 1.34 Small Cap 695318
LMB-Q Limbach Holdings 6.46 12.98 2.01 Micro Cap 98459
VTSI-Q VirTra 8.96 11.61 1.30 Micro Cap 75431
POWL-Q Powell Industries 23.25 30.07 1.29 Micro Cap 477188
APT-A Alpha Pro Tech 7.90 9.97 1.26 Micro Cap 446137
WLFC-Q Willis Lease Finance 36.01 43.35 1.20 Micro Cap 76317
DSS-A Document Security Systems 1.33 2.72 2.05 Nano Cap 2086498
AIRI-A Air Industries 1.10 1.14 1.04 Nano Cap 236512

N-NYSE, Q-Nasdaq, A-American, T-Toronto, X-Toronto Venture

Lets look at a few companies…

Lets look at a couple of the companies on this list to get a better understanding of them.

L3Harris Technologies

https://www.l3harris.com
Harris Corp develops, manufactures and sells technology-based solutions that serve government and commercial customers’ mission-critical challenges. Its products include communications systems, serving defense and public safety networks amongst othe

Schneider National

https://www.schneider.com
Schneider National Inc. provides transportation and logistics services. The company delivers broad portfolio of premier truckload, intermodal and logistics solutions and operating for-hire trucking fleets in North America.

VirTra

https://www.virtra.com
VirTra Inc is engaged in the sale and development of judgmental use of force training simulators and firearms training simulators for law enforcement, military and commercial uses.

The content presented here is in part from the website stockcalc.com and is provided on an as is or as available basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. You should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment decision.

Top 20 Undervalued Stocks by Market Cap Class April 2021 Communication Services Sector

What are the top 20 Undervalued Stocks (selected over 5 market cap classes) in the Communication Services Sector? I have used the analysis tools on the website stockcalc.com to generate the content of this blog post. Have a look down the Welcome page www.stockcalc.com/Welcome for some of the free lists and reports available.

Or start your StockCalc 30 Day Free Trial

Undervalued Stocks – Communication Services Sector

Today our focus is the Communication Services sector and we are looking at companies that are undervalued based on our Weighted Average Valuation (WAV) calculation which we do for the 8000 stocks each night in the StockCalc database.

The Communication Services sector is comprised of companies in the following Industry groups: Telecom Services, Advertising Agencies, Publishing, Broadcasting, Entertainment, Internet Content & Information, Electronic Gaming & Multimedia. For example the sector includes companies that provide phone as well as wireless and internet services, advertising, digital marketing, publishing. It also includes companies that own or operate radio and television broadcast stations, movie theaters or develop or publish video games.
The stocks are generally held for their dividends and capital appreciation.

We generate our Weighted Average Valuation (WAV) from 5 models and Analyst consensus. Overview of the models used: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF value) is a valuation technique where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. A Comparables model values the company on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies. We actually do 3 types of comparables models. An Adjusted Book Value (ABV) is calculated by multiplying book value per share by its historical Price to Book ratio. If we have Analyst coverage we look at the consensus target price.

Today’s Data – Communication Services

In the table below we can see the close price (Apr 28th 2021) and valuation for these companies along with the ratio of valuation to price as well as their market cap class and average trading volume.

Stock Symbol Company Name Close Price($) Valuation ($) Value/ Price M Cap Class Average Volume
BIDU-Q Baidu 215.83 378.25 1.75 Large Cap 3845634
ATUS-N Altice USA 35.12 41.71 1.19 Large Cap 5454410
WB-Q Weibo 51.95 60.00 1.15 Large Cap 771518
TMUS-Q T-Mobile US 132.08 150.11 1.14 Large Cap 1997431
TLK-N PT Telkom Indonesia 21.80 24.58 1.13 Large Cap 235016
MOMO-Q Momo 15.41 21.07 1.37 Mid Cap 1396920
TKC-N Turkcell Iletisim 4.68 5.99 1.28 Mid Cap 536589
HUYA-N HUYA 19.00 22.99 1.21 Mid Cap 1960325
MBT-N Mobile TeleSystems 8.64 10.18 1.18 Mid Cap 3561669
NXST-Q Nexstar Media Group 150.56 170.00 1.13 Mid Cap 243836
CNSL-Q Consolidated Comms Hldgs 6.65 14.90 2.24 Small Cap 291189
AMCX-Q AMC Networks 52.73 68.60 1.30 Small Cap 214220
MSGN-N MSG Networks 16.16 20.00 1.24 Small Cap 259220
CANG-N Cango 6.89 8.49 1.23 Small Cap 247148
GTN-N Gray Television 20.21 24.50 1.21 Small Cap 483713
FENG-N Phoenix New Media 1.74 3.26 1.88 Micro Cap 771158
MOXC-Q Moxian 6.20 9.42 1.52 Micro Cap 425758
NCTY-Q The9 25.78 35.80 1.39 Micro Cap 1320553
ZUM-X ZoomerMedia 0.13 0.15 1.23 Micro Cap 124000
KUKE-N Kuke Music Holding 5.79 6.49 1.12 Micro Cap 52460
BHAT-Q Blue Hat Interactive 1.20 1.44 1.20 Nano Cap 711548

N-NYSE, Q-Nasdaq, A-American, T-Toronto, X-Toronto Venture

Lets look at a few companies…

Lets look at a couple of the companies on this list to get a better understanding of them.

Altice USA

https://www.alticeusa.com
Altice USA Inc operates in the telecommunications, media and entertainment business. The company has two segments: Cablevision and Cequel through which it provides digital cable television, high-speed Internet, voice, and data products and services.

Turkcell Iletisim

https://www.turkcell.com.tr
Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri AS provides mobile telephone services in Turkey. It mainly provides mobile voice and data services for mobile communications networks.

Moxian

https://www.moxianglobal.com
Moxian Inc engages in the business of operating a social network platform that integrates social media and business into one single platform. The company has two primary core products: Moxian User App and Moxian Business App.

The content presented here is in part from the website stockcalc.com and is provided on an as is or as available basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. You should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment decision.

Enbridge (ENB:TSE) and Canadian Imperial Bank (CM:TSE) Are Undervalued

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I have used the analysis tools on the website stockcalc.com to generate some of the content of this blog post. These tools and reports are available for free at www.stockcalc.com/TopPicks.aspx.

Undervalued Stocks on TSE

Today we are looking at companies that are considered undervalued based on the Analyst data in the StockCalc database.

In the table below we can see the close price and target price for these companies along with the number of analysts covering the stock. We also have included the fiscal year for the target price as sometimes these analyst targets are not for the current or even the next fiscal year.

There can be a number of reasons why a company would be on this list. What is particularly interesting are companies with a large analyst following that make this list. We need to dig deeper into these companies to understand why the difference in price versus target.

Today’s Data on TSE

Today’s data is for companies listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

Symbol Name Target Year Close Price Target Price Mean Currency Target Price # of Estimates
ENB Enbridge Inc 2019 43.930000 55.9231 CAD 13
SU Suncor Energy Inc 2019 38.290000 53.6000 CAD 15
CM Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce 2020 103.510000 116.3333 CAD 9
CP Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd 2019 314.710000 342.3836 CAD 11
CNQ Canadian Natural Resources Ltd 2019 32.420000 47.4375 CAD 16
WN George Weston Ltd 2019 104.470000 115.0000 CAD 4
WEED Canopy Growth Corp 2020 44.120000 68.4286 CAD 7
TECK.B Teck Resources Ltd 2019 27.950000 41.5500 CAD 10
TECK.A Teck Resources Ltd 2019 28.000000 41.5500 CAD 10
CTC.A Canadian Tire Corp Ltd 2019 146.570000 175.8889 CAD 9
TSGI The Stars Group Inc 2019 21.940000 36.1000 CAD 5
DOO BRP Inc 2019 46.010000 57.5714 CAD 7
BYD.UN Boyd Group Income Fund 2019 170.600000 185.3636 CAD 11
WFT West Fraser Timber Co.Ltd 2019 53.810000 71.5000 CAD 6
TFII TFI International Inc 2019 42.020000 52.1818 CAD 11
VET Vermilion Energy Inc 2019 22.510000 36.3077 CAD 13
SNC SNC-Lavalin Group Inc 2019 20.850000 36.3333 CAD 9
SJ Stella-Jones Inc 2019 42.020000 52.2500 CAD 8
LNR Linamar Corp 2019 45.460000 62.5000 CAD 4
MRC Morguard Corp 2019 186.490000 205.0000 CAD 2
CGO Cogeco Inc 2020 94.400000 109.7500 CAD 2
LAS.A Lassonde Industries Inc 2019 183.250000 195.0000 CAD 1
SEA Seabridge Gold Inc 2019 18.620000 29.0000 CAD 1
AFN Ag Growth International Inc 2019 54.160000 71.0000 CAD 7
NVCN Neovasc Inc 2019 3.480000 26.8527 CAD 2

Let’s look at a few companies…

Lets look at a couple of the companies on this list to get a better understanding of them.

ENB:TSE Enbridge

http://www.enbridge.com
Enbridge has 12000 employees and is headquartered in Canada.
Enbridge Inc serves the oil & gas industry. Its key activity involves gathering and transportation of crude oil and natural gas.

CM:TSE Canadian Imperial Bank

http://www.cibc.com
Canadian Imperial Bank has 44797 employees and is headquartered in Canada.
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce is a Canadian-based financial institution. The company serves its clients through retail and business banking, wealth management and wholesale banking.

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The content presented here is in part from the website stockcalc.com and is provided on an as is or as available basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. You should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment decision.

Top 20 Undervalued Stocks by Market Cap Class April 2021: Technology Sector

What are the top 20 Undervalued Stocks (selected over 5 market cap classes) in the Technology Sector? I have used the analysis tools on the website stockcalc.com to generate the content of this blog post. Have a look down the Welcome page www.stockcalc.com/Welcome for some of the free lists and reports available.

Or start your StockCalc 30 Day Free Trial

Undervalued Stocks -Technology Sector

Today our focus is the Technology sector and we are looking at companies that are undervalued based on our Weighted Average Valuation (WAV) calculation which we do for the 8000 stocks each night in the StockCalc database. The Technology sector is comprised of companies in the following Industry groups: Application Software, Computer Hardware, Consumer Electronics, Semiconductors and Electrical Components. For example the sector includes companies that design, develop, market, and support hardware and software programs, including those that are cloud-based, for specific consumer and business functions. The stocks are generally not held for their dividends but rather capital appreciation.

We generate our Weighted Average Valuation (WAV) from 5 models and Analyst consensus. Overview of the models used: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF value) is a valuation technique where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. A Comparables model values the company on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies. We actually do 3 types of comparables models. An Adjusted Book Value (ABV) is calculated by multiplying book value per share by its historical Price to Book ratio. If we have Analyst coverage we look at the consensus target price.

Today’s Data – Technology

In the table below we can see the close price (Apr 12th 2021) and valuation for these companies along with the ratio of valuation to price as well as their market cap class and average trading volume.

Stock Symbol Company Name Close Price($) Valuation ($) Value/ Price M Cap Class Average Volume
BKI-N Black Knight 74.26 85.13 1.15 Large Cap 650614
CRM-N Salesforce.com 228.76 262.00 1.15 Large Cap 6205676
ADI-Q Analog Devices 159.73 180.00 1.13 Large Cap 2026743
CTXS-Q Citrix Systems 142.06 157.00 1.11 Large Cap 798943
SHOP-N Shopify 1202.00 1324.85 1.10 Large Cap 1030514
MSP-N Datto Holding 23.85 32.79 1.37 Mid Cap 380761
CRSR-Q Corsair Gaming 33.67 42.84 1.27 Mid Cap 657094
STMP-Q Stamps.com 207.61 244.14 1.18 Mid Cap 171026
APPF-Q AppFolio 142.50 166.89 1.17 Mid Cap 127772
BLKB-Q Blackbaud 71.55 82.13 1.15 Mid Cap 260796
EBIX-Q Ebix 30.05 58.33 1.94 Small Cap 251650
OPRA-Q Opera 10.62 17.24 1.62 Small Cap 211606
VHC-N VirnetX Holding 5.04 7.59 1.51 Small Cap 505982
IMXI-Q International Money 14.85 18.25 1.23 Small Cap 70283
ZEPP-N Zepp Health 10.51 12.84 1.22 Small Cap 239979
WTRH-Q Waitr Hldgs 2.76 4.29 1.55 Micro Cap 1778011
DAKT-Q Daktronics 6.31 9.02 1.43 Micro Cap 79138
PCYG-Q Park City Gr 5.28 7.19 1.36 Micro Cap 57141
INOD-Q Innodata 6.94 8.78 1.26 Micro Cap 92037
FKWL-Q Franklin Wireless 12.75 15.39 1.21 Micro Cap 152953

N-NYSE, Q-Nasdaq, A-American, T-Toronto, X-Toronto Venture

Lets look at a few companies…

Lets look at a couple of the companies on this list to get a better understanding of them.

Salesforce.com

http://www.salesforce.com
Salesforce.com Inc is a software-as-a-service company that provides enterprise cloud computing solutions, offering social and mobile cloud apps and platform services, as well as professional services to facilitate the adoption of its solutions.

Corsair Gaming

https://www.corsair.com
Corsair Gaming Inc is engaged in the business of providing high-performance gear for gamers and content creators. The product portfolio includes Cases, Keyboards, Mice, Headsets, Power Supplies, Gaming Computers, Gaming Chairs, Mouse pads, and other related products. The company operates in two segments namely, Gamer and Creator peripherals and Gaming Components and systems.

Daktronics

https://www.daktronics.com
Daktronics Inc along with its subsidiaries is engaged in the design, manufacture and sale of electronic display systems and related products for Commercial, Live Events, Schools and Theatres, and Transportation.

Dow 30 Stocks Price vs Valuation – April 2021

Are the markets becoming overvalued? Using StockCalc.com we ran the DOW 30 to look at Price versus valuation and currently we see 18 DOW 30 Stocks at or above fair value.

At StockCalc each day we run fundamental valuation models on 8000 Stocks (Canada, USA – TSE, NYS, NAS). I wanted to share this graph to show the valuations we have for the list of DOW 30 stocks currently. As you would expect a lot of DOW 30 stocks are close to fair value with the note the majority are now showing fully to overvalued, the strongest overvaluation we have seen in a while.

Website is StockCalc.com

DOW 30 Price v Value

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The content presented here is in part from the website stockcalc.com and is provided on an as is or as available basis with all faults and may not be current in all cases. You should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making an investment decision.

Top 20 Undervalued Stocks by Market Cap Class March 2021: Health Care

What are the top 20 Undervalued Stocks (selected over 5 market cap classes) in the Health Care Sector? I have used the analysis tools on the website stockcalc.com to generate the content of this blog post. Have a look down the Welcome page www.stockcalc.com/Welcome for some of the free lists and reports available.

Or start your StockCalc 30 Day Free Trial

Undervalued Stocks – Health Care Sector

Today our focus is the Health Care sector and we are looking at companies that are undervalued based on our Weighted Average Valuation (WAV) calculation which we do for the 8000 stocks each night in the StockCalc database. The Health Care sector is comprised of companies in the following Industry groups: Biotechnology, Drug Manufacturers, Healthcare Plans, Providers & Services, Medical Devices, Instruments, Diagnostics, Research and Distribution. Companies in this Sector range in activities from research and discovery through to development and production of innovative drug and drug related technologies. They also include medical software, diagnostics, equipment, retail drug sales through to managed health products and services. The mature companies in this sector tend to have steady revenues and earnings through the economic cycles. The stocks are also held for their dividends.

We generate our Weighted Average Valuation (WAV) from 5 models and Analyst consensus. Overview of the models used: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF value) is a valuation technique where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. A Comparables model values the company on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies. We actually do 3 types of comparables models. An Adjusted Book Value (ABV) is calculated by multiplying book value per share by its historical Price to Book ratio. If we have Analyst coverage we look at the consensus target price.

Today’s Data – Health Care

In the table below we can see the close price (Mar 15th 2021) and valuation for these companies along with the ratio of valuation to price as well as their market cap class and average trading volume.

Symbol Company Name Close Price($) Valuation ($) Value/ Price Class Average Volume
GRFS-Q Grifols 16.05 25.46 1.59 Large Cap 1252042
REGN-Q Regeneron Pharmaceuticals 483.94 670.01 1.38 Large Cap 725117
VRTX-Q Vertex Pharmaceuticals 219.65 281.29 1.28 Large Cap 1539755
FMS-N Fresenius Medical Care 36.32 45.43 1.25 Large Cap 514545
GSK-N GlaxoSmithKline 35.88 44.13 1.23 Large Cap 6011590
OPK-Q OPKO Health 4.72 6.11 1.29 Mid Cap 9264797
CMD-N Cantel Medical 78.43 100.00 1.28 Mid Cap 755123
GLPG-Q Galapagos 83.08 106.05 1.28 Mid Cap 142367
SAGE-Q Sage Therapeutics 79.32 99.00 1.25 Mid Cap 400545
EXEL-Q Exelixis 24.17 29.91 1.24 Mid Cap 2098945
SUPN-Q Supernus Pharmaceuticals 26.80 54.25 2.02 Small Cap 282360
CPRX-Q Catalyst Pharmaceuticals 3.94 7.27 1.84 Small Cap 1443936
CHRS-Q Coherus BioSciences 15.86 27.37 1.73 Small Cap 823515
CO-N Global Cord Blood 4.58 6.66 1.45 Small Cap 59174
GUD-T Knight Therapeutics 5.20 7.19 1.38 Small Cap 508236
HAPP-Q Happiness Biotech Gr 2.08 3.97 1.91 Micro Cap 316488
DR-T Medical Facilities 6.76 9.30 1.38 Micro Cap 77223
VYGR-Q Voyager Therapeutics 5.80 6.77 1.17 Micro Cap 422267
LABS-T MediPharm Labs 0.53 0.61 1.16 Micro Cap 4424442
CRHM-A CRH Medical 3.89 4.45 1.14 Micro Cap 375956
DN-T Delta 9 Cannabis 0.52 0.57 1.10 Nano Cap 245179

N-NYSE, Q-Nasdaq, A-American, T-Toronto, X-Toronto Venture

Lets look at a few companies…

Lets look at a couple of the companies on this list to get a better understanding of them.

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals

http://www.regeneron.com
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc is an integrated biopharmaceutical company. It discovers, invents, develops, manufactures, and commercializes medicines for the treatment of serious medical conditions.

Cantel Medical

http://www.cantelmedical.com
Cantel Medical Corp is dedicated in delivering infection prevention products and services for patients, caregivers, and other healthcare providers which improve outcomes, enhance safety and help save lives.

Medical Facilities

https://www.medicalfacilitiescorp.ca
Medical Facilities Corp is engaged in controlling interests, through its subsidiaries, in specialty hospitals and an ambulatory surgery center. The specialty surgical hospitals perform scheduled surgical, imaging and diagnostic procedures.

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